从技术指标来看,沪指周五回踩了20日线,然后收盘前ETF拉起了大盘指数。可以说,如果没有ETF的稳定大盘作用,那么一旦收盘跌破20日线,就等于阶段反弹结束,进入一轮调整。周五盘中已经出现了恐慌盘,既然市场能接住恐慌盘,而且没有改变上升趋势,那么下周就应该继续看多,也就是大盘既然是该跌不跌,那么就会选择向上突破。
周末有两件大事,第一个是王文涛部长召开外资药企座谈会,强调医药领域创新离不开全球化合作,强调将一视同仁支持本土企业和外资企业开展科技创新,欢迎外资药企向中国消费者不断提供优质的新产品和服务,这一表态将有力推动医药行业的创新发展。这件事与美国议员提出的反华的《生物安全法案》,对药明康德的无理打压形成鲜明的对比。我知道最近2年多,很多朋友持有医药股都是回撤巨大,抱怨很多,但我想说的是三点,第一,假如你不做医药板块,这两年是否也是回撤巨大?你可以看看过去中国最牛的公募基金经理的收益,无论是白酒消费类基金,还是汽车ETF基金,甚至包括半导体ETF科技基金,这两年都是回撤巨大。第二,医疗板块这两年几乎是团灭,这里面原因很多,既有集采的原因,也有行业景气度的原因,还有就是外部的原因,几乎所有医疗子行业都跌幅巨大,所以并非是你我不努力,而是这些不可抗力,非人力能改变。第三,一切皆是周期。随着美元降息周期到来,随着中国经济复苏,随着集采的应采尽采之后,政策对于医疗行业的负面影响在过去,随着人口老龄化,中国医疗企业走出去,新一轮的医疗牛市周期,将在2024年到来。
第二是本周大火的对话式AI助手产品Kimi智能助手现已支持200万字的无损上下文输入。Kimi概念板块中华策影视周五收盘连续斩获三个20CM涨停,中广天择和掌阅科技均实现三连板。最近市场蹭热度的上市公司越来越多,但AI独角兽月之暗面宣布,所有企业都可以把自己的系统接入Kimi做开发,这意味着所有的上市公司都可以使用Kimi,都可以和这个概念相关,如果未来市场概念股不再稀缺,这个热点板块还能持续涨停吗?
下周关注新质生产力:人工智能,低空经济,商业航天,生物医药。
预测有效日期
3月25日-3月29日
轮盘性质
中线
压力
支撑
预测
沪
指
箱底
2850
箱顶
3180
强支撑
2950
第一支撑
3000
3100
精确操盘体系
目前方向
筑底
精确目标
3219
形态分析系统
目前形态
筑底
中期方向
底部构筑
时间周期
比指数涨跌重要的是,实战投资策略是否完整;
比股龄长短重要的是,研究框架是否成熟完善;
比选出牛股重要的是,做好资产配置最佳组合。
板块轮动
科技:AI,智能汽车等
医疗:2024年重点关注行业边际改善,企业盈利恢复高成长的公司,比如中药(医保+注射剂),比如创新药(海外授权出海逻辑+CXO),比如医疗器械(院内恢复)。
消费:2024年消费复苏,食品饮料会有边际改善和医美可能会有超额收益。
70%仓位
仓位变化
无论是技术分析还是价值投资,都是依靠持有股票赚钱的。我从没有看见过,不敢持有股票,还能赚到大钱的股民。我们认为A股底部已经过去,投资人应当学习巴菲特,底部应当重仓,目前估值不贵,持有70%左右仓位是可以的。
操作策略
投资路,逆人行,进者盈亏个半,退者必输无疑。
政策分析
我们认为,在未来5-10年里会涌现出一批涨幅超过10倍,市值超过1000亿美元的医药公司,医疗将和AI赛道并驾齐驱,因为每一次历史底部开启的反弹都会出现一批三年十倍股的机会。类似的情况有2018年底,绝大多数机构投资人都是非常低仓位,结果诞生了一批十倍股。
操作
策略
70%仓位
留三分网络科技,以防与未来格格不入。
剩七分医疗消费,以图稳定盈利谋此生。
吕长顺 证书编号:A0150619070003。【以上仅代表个人观点,不构成买卖依据,股市有风险,投资需谨慎】 本人不指导操作,不代客户理财,不推荐股票,所有仅供参考!
喜欢
了。
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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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#06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}