| 弗雷迪

昨夜，全球三大存储巨头之一的美光科技发布2024第二财季（2023年12月，2024年1-2月）的业绩表现，截至北京时间16点，按照盘前的表现来看，美光的业绩表现再度刷新了市场的预期。

其中业绩最大的亮点莫过于，在原本还要承受一个季度的亏损的指引下，美光利润竟然奇迹般的扭亏为盈。

美光营收同比猛增58%，至58.2亿美元，NON-GAAP基准下的每股收益为42美分，相比营收预期约为53.5亿美元，每股亏损24美分的市场预期，可谓全面碾压。

要知道去年同期，美光创下二十年来单季度的最大亏损。营收同比下降53%，亏损23.1亿美元，其中包括14亿美元的库存损失，每股亏损2.12美元。

仅过一年，美光就从泥沼中爬起来了。作为算力三大要素之一（计算、存储、网络通信），AI对于存储芯片的需求可能比我们预期的还要乐观。AI的发展正在逐渐影响上游芯片端的供需，并且加速库存出清，迎来价量反转的上升周期。

01

从市场份额来看，目前全球NAND Flash市场以三星、SK海力士、铠侠、美光、西部数据5家厂商为主，全球DRAM市场由三星、SK海力士、美光三分天下。

新一轮AI革命对存力的巨大需求是美光的业绩助推器。公司CEO指出，为了支持人工智能软件的开发，数据中心对昂贵内存的需求变得强劲，美光已经卖完了公司在2024年可以制造的所有HBM。

HBM是一款新型的CPU/GPU 内存芯片，是将很多个DDR芯片堆叠在一起后和GPU封装在一起，实现大容量、高位宽的DDR组合阵列。HBM能够实现大模型时代的高算力、大存储的现实需求。

在最近一个季度，美光首次从其新品HBM3E中获得收入，供给英伟达的AI芯片H200 Tensor Core GPU。作为英伟达算力链的重要参与者，股价目前同样处于历史新高区域。

HBM正逐渐成为存储行业巨头实现业绩反转的舵手。

最先实现反转的是SK海力士，去年公司三季度依然保持亏损，但其核心业务——DRAM已经扭亏为盈，连公司自己在财报里都感到有点不可思议：去年第一季度由盈转亏的DRAM仅在两个季度后扭亏为盈。

SK海力士解释，主要是高性能存储芯片的市场需求增加，比如面向AI的代表性存储器HBM3、高容量DDR5 DRAM和高性能移动DRAM等主力产品销售情况出色，公司业绩在第一季度与上季度相比营业收入增长24%，营业损失减少38%。

目前AI带来的热潮还远没有停下来的意思，而HBM更是供不应求。美光公司已经开始大规模生产并从HBM3E产品中获得收入，客户反馈显示，与竞争对手的解决方案相比，HBM3E产品的功耗降低了30%。今年HBM产能已销售一空、2025年绝大多数产能已被预订。

美光预计，整个2024财年，HBM产品将带来“数亿美元”的收入，并且从第三财季开始，HBM收入将对DRAM和整体毛利率产生积极影响。

02

从周期角度来看，上一轮存储芯片大概在2021年2-3季度见顶回落，经历了两年左右的下行周期，DRAM和NAND的现货价格从去年9月以来触底回升，从去年10月到今年2月，部分现货价格反弹幅度达到20%以上。

美光财报中也提及到价格复苏的趋势，尽管平均出货量依旧受到PC、手机、常规数据中心拖累，但平均售价环比已经积累了十几个点以上的提升。

由于大多数终端市场的需求复苏，美光预期2024年DRAM、NAND产业供给都将低于需求。在整个2024年，DRAM和NAND的价格将进一步上涨。

去年下行周期还没结束前，几大存储巨头被动减产，调整开支计划。比如美光2023年的资本开支同比减少42%，并宣布进一步减产30%至2024年。所以减产后续将会对行业的供需进行影响；

另一方面，随着各个应用市场逐渐复苏，进一步增加对芯片库存的消耗。去年四季度，全球智能手机出货量同比增长8%，PC出货量同比增3%，更何况这些应用场景今年都有AI的加持，自然需要容量更大的内存芯片。供给、需求、库存、价格等方面预示着，存储芯片周期或即将开启上升周期了。

AI除了激活某类特定内存芯片的需求，实际上也有作用于整个芯片供需的外溢作用。AI服务器不断增长的需求推动了HBM、DDR5和固态硬盘的增长，同时挤占了DRAM的供给，使得对其他应用场景里供应能力相对下滑，这对所有内存和存储终端市场的定价都产生了影响。

比较早的信号发生在去年12月7日，西部数据向客户发出涨价通知信，强调未来几季NAND芯片产品价格将呈现周期性上涨，预期累计涨幅高达55%。

03

虽然下游需求已经露出了复苏迹象，美光依然保持谨慎，资本开支在2023年的基础上（70亿美元）仅增加了5-10亿。

同时对第三财季给了业绩预期，在Q2基础上给了投资者很大的信心，并预计2025财年的收入将创历史新高。

可以看出，美光对于下游需求复苏和周期节奏是比较有把握的。业绩和估值的高度，最后还是要看回周期和下游需求。

周期轮动，把上个周期亏掉的钱赚回来；隶属于DRAM的HBM需求尤其强劲，与英伟达AI GPU绑定的HBM需求已经在美光目前的股价上验证过了。而一旦下游某个需求超预期复苏，芯片价格还有可能加速上涨。

HBM对于这轮周期是锦上添花，美光说今年把能卖的HBM已经卖完了，盈利上限，或许最终取决于这轮周期复苏的力度。如果一个公司盈利在早期上修通道，用静态估值的理由去空是非常危险的，有可能最后出现的情况是，越涨越便宜。（全文完）

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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}