随着华尔街越来越擅长于用“标签化”的形式，讲述资本市场上的热门“故事”，越来越多拥有相似题材或有着优异股价、业绩表现的公司，如今正被捆绑在一起，并吸引着投资者的目光。过去一年，科技股引领股市，其中又以“美股七巨头”（Magnificent Seven）风头最盛。

这“七巨头”分别是：谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉，业务主要集中在人工智能、云计算、网络零售、软件服务、电动汽车等领域。它们的市值合计高达逾13万亿美元，相当于全球第二大股票市场。

不过，与去年这“七巨头”无一例外呈现大涨相比，年内迄今，这七只巨头的股价呈现出了较为明显的分化走势。这些展露的分歧，无疑也抛出了一个疑问：属于“七巨头”的时代还将持续多久？

AI引爆，英伟达“狂飙”

与去年的高歌猛进不同，今年以来，美股“七巨头”出现了明显的分化，若以股价涨跌幅来进行划分，几乎可以切割为三个梯队：第一梯队毫无悬念，独属于涨幅“狂飙”的英伟达，这个AI时代的“卖铲人”，其股价从今年年初的每股100余美元暴涨至如今的超800美元，市值增长超万亿美元；第二梯队由另外三只年内上涨的“巨头”组成——它们分别是Meta、亚马逊和微软；而第三梯队则是由年内迄今下跌的“巨头”构成——它们分别是谷歌、苹果和特斯拉。这三家巨头在去年股价大涨后，如今都遇到了各自的瓶颈和新的利空，其中尤其以特斯拉跌幅最大。

作为人工智能崛起最大的受益者，英伟达堪称近一年多来最耀眼的上市公司，其股价去年暴涨了239%，并且疯狂涨势仍在继续，不断刷新股价历史新高，从某种意义上说，今年“七巨头”的表现之所以存在如此巨头的差异，一个最被人们广为提及的原因，无疑仍是AI。AI浪潮下，英伟达成为当下风头最劲的科技股。

图片来源：市界

2月21日，英伟达发布的最新财报显示，2023财年营收达到609亿美元，增长126%，创历史新高；净利润为297亿美元，增长581%。几乎同日，高盛集团的交易部门将其评为了“地球上最重要的股票”，而这缘于如今英伟达对指数的影响力之大、可能会撼动整个市场。

当不少人在英伟达的股价上涨中深深陶醉之时，也有不少声音在强调回撤的风险。高盛战术专家Scott Rubner在给客户的一份报告中写道了他对英伟达的判断：“（当前）所有人都在下注，并且出现了仓位警告信号。门槛很高，我所说的‘高’是指预计会有很大的打击。”

图片来源：市界

Meta、亚马逊、微软，跑赢美股大盘

Meta虽然在2022年经历了市值的低谷，但在过去12个月里上涨了168%。公司市值重回万亿美元行列，与此同时，META的AI雄心也在凸显。

过去这段日子，Meta在人工智能领域的表现毫不逊色：生成式人工智能大语言模型Llama可与OpenAI和谷歌的模型竞争，与此同时，Meta还在寻求将人工智能工具集成到其核心产品中。路透社称，Meta正在研发一款面向数据中心的定制芯片“Artemis”，计划使用自研芯片为其人工智能系统提供动力，以减少对英伟达芯片的依赖。

数据显示，按照Meta的运营规模，成功部署自己的芯片有可能每年节省数亿美元的能源成本和数十亿美元的芯片采购成本。在不久前的一段视频中，扎克伯格还暗示了Meta开发通用人工智能 (AGI) 的宏伟计划。在好于预期的业绩之外，这些消息似乎也提振了外界对于Meta的信心。

Meta创始人扎克伯格

图片来源：机器之心

而微软和亚马逊的上涨背后，也有着类似的底气。放眼全球科技史，能接连穿越周期保持长盛不衰势头的科技企业本就微乎其微，在2014年之前，就有很多人给微软判了死缓。但微软的厉害之处在于，在PC互联网时代便登上王座的它，即便在移动互联网时代跌落神坛、被苹果取代，又能够再一次在AI时代重登王座。

当前微软与英伟达卡着AI、算力的要道，今年1月12日以来，微软市值持续上涨，并超过苹果，重新夺回全球市值第一大公司的宝座。AI持续带动Azure云业务增长，微软认为2024年AI将成为每台Windows PC的首要部分，Copilot功能有望持续部署。

图片来源：微软

在“美股七巨头”中，亚马逊2024年开局也非常好，年初至今已上涨15.41%，比标准普尔500指数高出768个基点（比较总回报率）。此前发布的2023财年第四季度数据显示，亚马逊营收为1699.6亿美元，较上年的1492亿美元同比增长14%，超过预期。随着该公司减少其业务的周期性和对零售的过度依赖，并专注于开发AWS，其利润率的增长和营收扩张的稳定性应该成为常态。公司预计2024年资本开支有望同比增长，其中约60%开支或继续用于支持AWS云业务。

作为第一大云服务提供商，亚马逊对AI的持续投资也有望带动AI算力产业链的发展。

下跌的“巨头”：谷歌、苹果和特斯拉

相比之下，谷歌、苹果和特斯拉，则陷入了各自的困境之中。

虽然谷歌身上也同样具有着浓厚的AI标签，但令人深感难堪的无疑是其大模型的频繁出错，尤其是OpenAI旗下的Sora率先推动AI视频进入全新时代的背景下。谷歌一度因“绘制不出白人”而停止了Gemini运行生成人物图像的功能，这甚至令长期退居幕后的谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林也看不下去，公开直言Gemini图像生成功能“翻车得很彻底”。

而相比谷歌，苹果与特斯拉的问题则无疑更为严重。上月末，苹果宣布决定放弃始于2014年的汽车研发项目——泰坦计划（Project Titan），相关人员将部分调整至人工智能研发部门。此后，苹果首席执行官库克在年度股东大会上表示，计划在今年晚些时候披露更多关于使用生成人工智能的计划，进一步加入这场行业热潮中。

然而，这姗姗来迟的转变本身就意味着苹果在AI布局上的滞后，迄今为止，苹果仍未能公布过在AI领域任何跨时代的产品。巴克莱银行的分析师在今年1月的一份报告中提出，苹果过去一年大部分季度业绩都未达到预期，但股价表现却优于其他公司。自2022年Q4起，苹果营收已连续4个季度下滑，iPad和Mac销量多个季度不及预期，而其主要的智能手机业务，在中国市场上的份额也正在不断被蚕食。

图片来源：unsplash

在特斯拉方面，尽管该公司过去一年间售价已一降再降，但电动汽车需求的放缓似乎已经成为大势所趋。今年以来，特斯拉股价持续走低，累计跌幅超30%，其总市值已经不到Meta的二分之一。曾看涨特斯拉的摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas在近期报告中警告，如果按公认会计原则计算，特斯拉的汽车业务将变得亏损的话，“可能就是今年”。

当前，“是否要将特斯拉开除出七巨头行列的话题”正在华尔街热议，不少业内人士也在积极寻找特斯拉的替代品，例如，减肥药赛道的光明前景，在未来是否会取代特斯拉背后逐渐熄火的美国新能源热潮。

从历史上看，热门个股不断退出股市赢家行列，并被新的赢家所取代，这是金融市场固有的过程。已故奥地利经济学家Joseph Schumpeter将此称为“创造性破坏”理论——每一次大规模的创新都淘汰旧的技术和生产体系，并建立起新的生产体系，并坚持认为这是推动经济发展的创新的重要附带产物。

图片来源：unsplash

与此同时，我们也注意到，在这繁荣的背后，市场的担忧也在逐渐积累。近年来，美股市场的马太效应不断增强，七家科技巨头在标普500总市值中的占比达到了历史最高水平。这种“强者恒强”的现象让许多投资者开始担心泡沫的破裂。美股的新一轮轮动或已启航。

资料来源：创投日报、市界、数字力场等

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.05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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.wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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