兔死狐悲。

药明生物迄今承受的苦难，已不再只是一家CXO的事情，而是标志着生物科技全面脱钩的铁幕降落。在国内支付环境、投融资（未盈利企业上市是一种原罪）受限的背景下，中国创新药正常发展的结果，本来是把美国作为最大市场。

如今绝无这种可能。

药明生物本来即将成为中国首批跨国药企，现在市值却仅剩500+亿人民币，正奔着清算价值而去。

药明生物人均费用显著低于Lonza

等待药明生物的将是何种结局？

1、当前市场正探寻其最坏情况下的估值。

2、全面脱钩不等于彻底脱钩，预计实际落地情况将有所好转。

终止Bio会员资格的是药明康德，崩溃的却是药明生物。

药明康德主要以A股为锚，并且业绩预期一向稳定。而药明生物仅在港股上市，港股在对负面因素入价上堪称全球最积极。药明生物自行打乱业绩预期，并且2023年盈利可能受公允价值变动损失所拖累。据华兴证券，截至2023年6月底，药明生物拥有的以公允价值变动的资产达到26.46亿元（2023H1公允价值收益达到归母净利润5%）：其中上市股权证券（3.36亿元），主要为在香港联交所或者美股纳斯达克上市的生物医药公司；非上市股权投资（7.24亿元），包括准备在A/H或者美国等地上市的生物医药公司；联营公司投资15.86亿元。

药明生物2024年规划产能43万升，北美收入占比约46%（2023H1）。假如药明生物北美业务归零，这部分产能刚好可以由三星生物顶上。三星生物第五家工厂产能为18万升，将于2025年4月完工后开始运营。

所以，脆弱的药明生物，在巨大的地缘风险重压下，收入占比约75%的海外业务面临瓦解，直接按最坏情况进行估值。

市场对生物安全法案没有纠结于字面意义，而是正视从供应链、技术到市场的全面脱钩趋势。但全面脱钩只代表着一种广度，无法做到完全切割。

中国CXO兼具技术、成本优势，具有最佳可靠性，这是生存韧性所在。药明生物拥有领先的技术平台、行业最佳的项目交付时间，在2018年就推出双抗开发平台，早于Lonza 3-5年，ADC平台可提高DAR4 ADC含量至85%，堪比定点偶联，细胞株构建平台对CHO-K1 细胞系进一步修饰，可以在9-10周的时间实现100%成功率的稳定生产。药明生物人均费用仅为Lonza的50%左右（注：人均费用=人事费用/员工数。人事费用包括工资薪金、社会保障、退休金、分红费用及其他与人员有关的福利待遇）。

中国CXO只是省钱高效的代工机构，不涉及意识形态、国家安全。药明康德、药明生物澄清，公司业务范围不包括人类基因组学，从未在各类业务中收集人类基因组数据，且公司运营并未对美国或其他国家的国家安全构成风险。生物安全法案以及后续潜在升级措施，其实存在一个bug，无法找到合法化理由对中国CXO业务进行归零，基因组学或国家安全覆盖范围较窄，在实施层面也只有限制接受联邦资金项目外包更为可行。

总有人疑惑，药明系是美国企业还是中国企业？这恰好说明全球医药产业链的深度融合和相互依存，无法进行简单切割。

2022年，8家跨国药企（阿斯利康、默沙东、拜耳、赛诺菲、罗氏、诺华、诺和诺德、礼来）制药业务中国市场合计收入约289亿美元。中国是阿斯利康第二大市场，2023年中国区营收58.76亿美元，同比增长7%，占全球业绩13%。中国是默沙东第三大市场，2023年中国区收入67.1亿美元，同比增长32%，占全球制药份额12.5%。中国是赛诺菲第二大市场，2023年中国市场收入29.12亿欧元。诺华、武田制药均把中国纳入第二大目标市场。

药明生物预计于2026年产能较2023年末翻倍，达到58万升，新增产能几乎全部落地于海外，爱尔兰、新加坡、德国、美国，分别对应5.4/12/2.4/4.2万升产能，接受当地监管，平衡地缘政治影响。

那么，生物安全法案的真实目的是什么？国家安全不过是欲加之罪，何患无辞。美国议员可能认为，美国药企过度依赖中国供应链是威胁，中国生物科技快速追赶美国也是威胁。

中国生物科技产业崛起，正面临打压风险，可能会受到海外全面、严重的限制，但彻底脱钩是不可能的，欧美业务不会归零。

事到如今，药明生物带给投资者的最大潜在风险，仍然是道德风险。鉴于其以往辉煌的资本运作史，在脱钩风险压力下是否会金蝉脱壳，低价私有化退市？需要公司适时释放稳定的预期。

毛利率角度来看，仿制药CXO公司行业领先  资料来源：wind，各公司公告，德邦研究所

不仅是CXO危机，中国生物科技产业正面临一个危急关头。

告诉你一个冷笑话，发展创新药，一片火热的却是仿制药CXO，因为不受投融资、海外脱钩影响，反而受益于集采和地方联采政策所推动的加速进口替代、原研替代的进程。2023年仿制药研发热情高涨，3+4类仿制药受理数量达3825个，较2022年提升66%，一致性评价申报数量达992个，同比提升19%。仿制药CXO行业预计2023-2027将保持20%以上复合增长。随着专利衔接制度的完善，首仿企业还获得一定的保护期，如近期获批的正大天晴依维莫司片拥有12个月保护期。仿制药还包括吸入制剂、经皮制剂、缓控释制剂等复杂制剂形式，研发具有一定壁垒。

仿制药CRO维持高景气度，2023Q1-3百诚医药收入增长69.7%，阳光诺和增长39.7%，万邦医药增长33.4%。百诚医药2023H1新增订单同比增长56.3%，阳光诺和订单同样保持较快增长。

医药创新正在走曲折山路。

全链条支持创新药，让未盈利企业IPO看到光芒，两天后，IPO又几乎对亏损企业关门。未盈利企业要如何才能充分论证持续经营能力、披露预计实现盈利情况？

中国创新药的崛起进程不能中断，要避免混合双打。

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#c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 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.05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}