在波兰肯杰任科兹莱县，县政府每年都会举办一个业余年轻消防员比赛，参赛的队伍由县里各个地区派出。2019年，该县奥德赞斯基村庄派出的队伍居然都是由年轻的女孩子组成，这引起了波兰本国媒体的注意：这个村庄没有男性青年吗？为什么不派出年轻的男性业余消防员？

经波兰本国媒体报道后不久，这件事情就发酵成了一个国际新闻。因为经调查，人们发现了一个令人诧异的现象：该村庄居然有近10年没有男婴出生了！

具体是什么情况呢？原来，在这个不到300人口的小村庄里，最后一个男孩的出生是在2010年，而从2011年到2019年年底出生的12个婴儿，居然全部都是女孩！从宏观统计上看，生男生女的概率几乎是相等的。但这个村庄居然已经近十年没有男婴出生，难道这里面是有什么隐情吗？如果有隐情，起码村庄的人们是不知道的。因为他们尝试了很多民间生男孩的方法，但统统不管用。一年又一年，这个村庄仍然只有女孩子出生。蜂拥而至的媒体到达该村庄，采访了下至村民上至市长的众多人，试图了解到更多隐情，但都失望而归。

这件事情显然是不大符合遗传规律的。一些遗传学家听闻这件事情后，决定前往该村庄进行调查。但是他们经过研究后发现，这个村子的人与其他村子的人并没有什么不同——他们既没有特殊的生活习惯，也没有什么遗传疾病。村庄的水源、土壤等相关的地质也没有问题。这就奇了怪了？完全正常的一个村子，为什么还会发生这种登上英、美各国主流报纸，算得上是全球闻名的怪事呢！

新闻的热度过后，人们的内心开始静下来，思考这件事发生的原因。大家忽略了一件事情，这个村庄10年才生了12个女孩，可见这个村庄的生育率是很低的。一个怀孕的妇女，她生一个男婴和生一个女婴的概率相等，都为1/2。那么，不论在什么时间段内，12位妈妈全生女孩的概率为（1/2）12=1/4096。这个概率虽然小，但是在全球人口超过70亿的今天，这件事情还是可能发生的。但是，这件事在世人眼中可不是“十年连续生12个女孩”，而是“十年不生男孩”或者“十年连续生女孩”，“12”往往被忽略掉了，而“十年”一词却占据新闻的标题。

所以，人们觉得连续生12个女孩这件事非常奇怪的原因，与一个词有着很大的关系——“十年”。十年对于一个人来说是不短的，如果一件事情能在十年这么长的时间跨度内一直发生，肯定会让人觉得非比寻常。如果这12个女孩在同一年出生，人们的惊奇度就没有那么高了。为什么呢？其实这里还有一个时间概率问题。如果同一年出生12个女孩，虽然人们感到很惊奇，但人们估计第二年就有可能生男孩，这种概率也是1/2。这样一年一年过去，不生男孩的概率会越来越小。到了第十年，连续不生男孩的概率只有（1/2）9=1/512。所以两个小概率事件遇到一起，就会让人感到更惊奇了。

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#8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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