专家预测2025年中国人形机器人有望产业化落地
/ IT时报记者 沈毅斌
/ 钱立富 孙妍
在3月19日的GTC大会上,一段人形机器人演示视频播放完之后,身着黑色皮衣的英伟达CEO黄仁勋走到由英伟达软硬件平台开发的九款人形机器人中央,摊开双臂,用自己的身形与人形机器人进行对比,随后说道“About the same size(大小差不多)”。在现场响起的掌声中,黄仁勋宣布英伟达开启人形机器人通用基础模型GR00T项目,用新GPU为人形机器人智能化提供算力支撑。
就在英伟达宣布人形机器人项目的前一周,机器人初创企业Figure与OpenAI合作,打造出一款名为Figure 01的人形机器人。演示视频中,Figure 01不仅能与人类进行对话,还能清理垃圾、整理餐具、将识别出可以吃的物品递给演示者。无论是对话,还是动作,Figure 01都展现出较强的精准性和流畅度。
图源:Figure
大模型的熊熊烈火点燃整个AI行业,如今,科幻电影中展现的机器人桥段正在变为现实。高工机器人产业研究所所长卢瀚宸告诉《IT时报》记者,从目前发展进度来看,2024年制造人形机器人的企业将超过百家,乐观情况下,2025年中国人形机器人有望迎来产业化落地。
加快形成
人形机器人生态
“开发通用人形机器人基础模型是当今AI领域中最令人兴奋的课题之一。”在GTC大会上,黄仁勋介绍,作为一个通用基础模型,GR00T的作用是改变人形机器人学习现实世界的方式,通过理解自然语言文本、人类语言、视频、现场演示等,模仿人类的肢体动作或其他行为,从而实现与真实世界的交互。
尽管黄仁勋并没有公开具体细节,但为了让GR00T更加智慧,英伟达推出了一款基于Thor系统的新型人形机器人计算平台Jetson Thor。据介绍,该平台采用英伟达Blackwell架构,搭载了Transformer引擎,算力达到了800 Teraflop,也就是提供每秒800万亿次8位浮点运算AI性能来支撑GR00T的运行。
此外,英伟达还对原有的Isaac机器人平台生成式AI基础模型、仿真工具、AI工作流等方面进行升级,专门用于开发、模拟以及利用GPU加速功能在虚拟环境中模拟训练机器人。
“你可以将它看成是新能源车初期格局中的特斯拉,会明显推动人形机器人发展速度。”卢瀚宸告诉《IT时报》记者,GR00T人形机器人通用模型属于多模态,大模型的一种,但相比普通多模态在算力、算法上都具有更强的针对性。例如,普通多模态大模型可以实现对文本、图片、视频的理解和生成,而GR00T不仅要做到多模态学习,更重要的是要与机器人系统的传感器数据、动作执行器等紧密相连,实现从感知到决策再到行动的闭环。
既然是通用模型,英伟达GR00T就不会仅服务于一家人形机器人企业。目前,英伟达在机器人领域的合作伙伴包括Apptronik、波士顿动力、Figure AI等头部企业。英伟达将可能成为人形机器人生态的主导者,“未来,随着GR00T开放程度进一步提升,一定会吸引很多玩家,虽不能说入局门槛大大降低,但至少在开发机器人系统原型方面的难度会降低很多,开发者也会对英伟达产生一定的依赖。”卢瀚宸说。
最快2025年商业落地
GTC大会最后,一段人形机器人搬箱子、倒咖啡、做菜等场景应用的视频吸引了人们的目光,随后由迪士尼生产的orange和green两台小机器人摇头晃脑地走到黄仁勋旁边,它们搭载的就是英伟达设计的首款AI芯片jetson。无论是在视频演示中,还是现场,小机器人的动作都比较迟缓,不过这展现的是人们对于人形机器人落地应用的美好想象。
图源:英伟达
政策方面,工信部2023年底发布的《人形机器人创新发展指导意见》中提出:到2025年,人形机器人创新体系初步建立,“大脑”“小脑”“肢体”等一批关键技术取得突破。确保核心部组件安全有效供给,整机产品达到国际先进水平,并实现批量生产,在民生服务等场景得到示范应用;到2027年,形成安全可靠的产业链和供应链体系,构建具有国际竞争力的产业生态,综合实力达到世界先进水平。
2024年初,工信部发布了《关于推动未来产业创新发展的实施意见》,其中特别提到突破人形机器人的关键技术,如高动态运动规划与控制、仿生感知与认知、智能灵巧手等。
政策利好下,许多企业正在涌入这条新赛道,卢瀚宸告诉《IT时报》记者,2024年制造人形机器人的企业将超过百家,乐观预计2025年中国人形机器人有望迎来产业化落地。
目前,这些企业基本可以分成五大派别。首先是以波士顿动力、优必选等为代表的“老玩家”,入局较早,拥有丰富的研发经验和技术,同时还有比较稳固的市场地位。不过劣势在于,它们至今未找到成熟的商业化落地场景,不断烧钱、创新受限是需要解决的关键问题。第二类是初创型企业,如国外的Figure AI、Apptronik,它们的优势在于创新与吸金能力,通过不断与头部企业合作,试图在新赛道上分到一杯羹。另外还有小米、特斯拉等跨界企业、算法算力软件企业等。
英伟达GR00T的发布,无疑会加剧人形机器人市场竞争,从10到100再回归到10是每个行业成熟之前都要经历的“腥风血雨”,但这也会让人形机器人行业驶向快车道。高工机器人产业研究所预计,2026年中国人形机器人市场规模将达到30亿元,2030年有望突破380亿元。
软硬件需要同步发展
人形机器人的构成不仅需要多模态大模型这一颗“大脑”,还需要负责运动控制的“小脑”和执行运动指令的“躯干”。这意味着,软硬件需要同步发展。如何让人形机器人具备智能灵活特征的同时,又遵循“机器人三原则”才是行业健康发展的关键。
尽管英伟达GR00T为人形机器人提供更强大的“大脑”,Figure 01也展现出极强的仿真学习和执行命令能力,但在智能方面,南京邮电大学管理学院讲师刘德文认为,目前发展人形机器人的最大问题还是在AI技术方面。人形机器人工作场景中需要处理速度更快,鲁棒性、可扩展性和适应性更强的通用型算法。
硬件方面,如何让机器人变得更为灵活是一大挑战。北京航空航天大学副教授陶永表示,硬件的挑战一方面来自核心零部件,包括高精度伺服电机、伺服驱动器、减速器、控制器,也包括各种传感器,比如双目视觉传感器、激光雷达,末端的力传感器、触觉传感器等,另一方面则是如何将这些硬件高度集成。
“当大模型与运动控制系统达到耦合时,人形机器人才能像人类一样灵活运动。”卢瀚宸表示,以人形机器人最难打造的手部来说,一只手上需要搭载六维力传感器、触觉传感器等多种传感器,而其灵活程度又是由传感器决定,当自由度达到10级,手指才能实现弯曲、抓握。当大模型发出指令后,传递到每个传感器上的电信号都需要识别时间才能做出动作。如何缩短传递信号的时间,增加自由度便是手部需要突破的技术难题。
在视觉方面,3D视觉感知是人形机器人不可缺少的技术,但高工机器人研究院预计,未来5年将是机器视觉行业发展的关键“卡位期”。谁能快速找到解决方案,谁才能在人形机器人赛道脱颖而出。
无论是GR00T,还是之前的GPT、Sora,都是国外企业冲在前面,国内企业才陆续跟进。卢瀚宸认为,我国的AI能力相比顶尖水平还存在较大差距,英伟达这次发布的多款新品将进一步把差距拉大,需要长时间追赶。不过,我国的优势在于完善的供应链,也就是硬件优势,比如人形机器人核心部件都能快速制造并量产。
排版/ 季嘉颖
图片/ 英伟达 Figure
来源/《IT时报》公众号vittimes
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#1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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