《港湾商业观察》王璐
近些年持续向养猪行业大举扩张的京基智农（000048.SZ）交出了一份业绩暴增的2023年答卷。
3月19日晚，京基智农发布2023年年度报告。报告期内，公司实现营业收入124.17亿元，同比增长107.1%；归母净利润17.46亿元，同比增长125.89%；扣非净利润17.29亿元，同比增长100.68%；基本每股收益3.3375元/股。
01
2023销售生猪超184万头，平衡术优势明显
年报显示，京基智农在2023年的业绩较2022年同期大幅增长的主要原因系公司房地产项目交付数量较2022年同期大幅增加，结转销售收入及利润相应大幅增长。
京基智农介绍，公司继续围绕存量土地进行开发和运营，2023年结转营收85.82亿元，预售（销售）金额25.30亿元。
地产业务作为公司支持型业务，推动了生猪养殖业务的快速发展，也抵御了生猪价格波动的风险。
自2019年确定战略转型至今，生猪养殖业务已然成为京基智农的核心主业。众所周知，在2023年猪周期影响之下，国内多数猪企上市公司面临着亏损局面。
公开信息显示，根据22家涉及生猪养殖业务的A股上市公司披露2023年业绩预告，其中18家企业归母净利润录得亏损，合计亏损248.66亿-291.65亿元。
国家统计局数据显示，2023年末全国能繁母猪存栏量4142万头，比2022年12月末的阶段性高点减少约250万头，但仍然高于正常保有量（2023年调控指导保有量为4,100万头）；2023年生猪出栏7.27亿头，增长3.8%；猪肉产量5,794万吨，增长4.6%，处于2015年以来的最高水平。生猪供给端供应充足，而消费端需求增长有限，导致全年生猪价格低迷，全行业处于深度亏损期。
从这个意义上看，京基智农在2023年的业绩表现上优于同行，这也源于存量地产业务与生猪养殖业务形成了良好的平衡术。
据悉，生猪养殖方面，2023年京基智农生猪养殖业务稳步推进，出栏规模快速增长，全年实现营业收入28.13亿元，同比增长23.82%。全年累计销售生猪184.50万头，同比增长45.92%。
截至2023年底，公司生猪（含哺乳仔猪）存栏110.85万头，母猪存栏约11.22万头，其中基础母猪约9.8万头，后备母猪约1.4万头。据新猪派统计，截至2023年底，京基智农能繁母猪数量位列全国猪企第21名，能繁母猪存栏量处于区域领先水平。
饲料业务方面，2023全年饲料销售21.51万吨，净利润3,149万元。据了解，公司旗下四大生猪养殖项目均配建饲料厂，并严格把控原材料供应端，通过饲料供应的自供自产模式，持续助力生猪养殖业务的提质增效,实现营收规模和盈利能力的稳步提升。
聚焦生猪养殖，发展智慧农业，是京基智农的现代农业战略定位。据了解，公司采用国际领先的"楼宇聚落式+6750自繁自养一体化"养殖模式，组织实施闭群、批次化、满负荷均衡生产;采用BLUP数量遗传工具;开发应用八大智慧养殖系统管理;建立生物安全四色防控体系。通过持续加强精细化管理及猪场健康管控，有效实现生产效率的高质量提升。
此外，公司目前已形成集饲料生产、种猪繁育、生猪育肥、食品终端为一体的生猪养殖产业链条。在食品终端环节，以京基智农食品为主体开展食品端建设，拥有猪肉、鸡肉等优质畜禽产品，与深圳主要屠宰厂达成长期合作，并打通了商超、大型食品企业、新零售等渠道。
对现代农业的深耕，离不开人才团队的补充与吸收。年报显示，截至报告期末，京基智农已经形成近3000人的现代农业团队，助推公司战略落地。公司十分重视产学研合作，与华南农业大学合作成立华南农业大学、广东茂名农林科技职业学院等多所专业院校开展人才合作，形成稳定的技术生源储备及技术人才支持。
报告期内，京基智农高州项目获评国家级非洲猪瘟"无疫小区"；徐闻、贺州项目通过"无疫小区"现场评审。截至目前，京基智农已成为上市猪企中无疫小区产能覆盖率超86%的企业，处于行业领先水平。
02
猪周期深度调整下，今年发展的六大策略
业内普遍预计，
随着猪周期深度调整之下，行业“强者恒强，弱者恒弱”现象将更加凸出，这也意味着像京基智农这样具备综合优势明显的企业未来将迎来爆发期。
据行业统计年鉴数据显示，我国生猪养殖总户数从2011年的5787万户下降至2021年的2010万户，下降幅度高达65%。根据上市公司披露的出栏数以及农业农村部披露的全国出栏数，我国上市猪企（含港股）的市场占有率从2018年的7.43%上涨至2023年的21.08%，行业已经逐步从小散养户为主过渡至中大型养殖企业主导下的竞争格局。
中邮证券在日前的行业研究报告中指出，生猪价格短期价格回升，不影响长期产能去化之势：1，在经过23年一整年的大幅亏损后，业内很多公司现金流已极度紧张。当前看，供强需弱格局难以改变，行业亏损仍将持续，将加速企业退出；2，从23年底北方情况看，本轮病毒情况较往年更加复杂。随着春季到来，南方养殖户的疾病防控将面临考验；3，当前业内普遍预期谨慎，部分公司已下调24年出栏目标。
京基智农在年报中也谈及，在行业规模化进程中，竞争的主体将逐步由散户转变为规模养殖户尤其是大规模养殖企业，后者不仅具有较高的养殖水平和领先的成本控制能力，而且具有更充足的现金流及更强的融资能力，这将改变原来的猪价周期规律。
以美国生猪行业为例，伴随着行业规模化浪潮，“猪周期”呈现明显的周期变长、波动增大的特点，这意味着未来生猪养殖行业可能会面临亏损周期更长、极端行情下单头亏损金额更大的情形，这将进一步倒逼缺乏成本控制力、现金流管理能力的中小散户退出，同时也对大型养殖企业的管理能力提出新的挑战。
针对今年的发展计划，京基智农提出，公司将围绕"精湛技术、精细管理、精诚合作、精英团队"的经营主题开展全年工作：（1）持续加强项目精细化管理，保持项目满产满负，全面提升养殖综合效率；（2）以市场需求为导向，调整优化养殖计划、出栏体重等，把握好成本与效益之间的平衡点，实现养好猪、卖好价；（3）从原料采购、营养配方、养殖管控、出栏检测等全流程做好食品安全工作，扎实推动健康养殖；（4）深挖边际效益，落实节能减排举措，全面推进降本增效；（5）持续推进管理标准化水平，重点做好统计分析的标准化及绩效考核的规范化；（6）保持禽养殖存量业务稳定运营，集中发展种苗业务，盘活闲置资产，深挖经营效益。（港湾财经出品）
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rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: 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rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: 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#191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}
