来源：视觉中国
｜程潇熠 ｜康晓
出品丨深网·腾讯新闻小满工作室
AI光年/追踪中国AGI崛起之路
华为、百度、小鹏等围绕智驾发起的新一轮口水战，预示着新能源汽车竞争，正从上半场的电动化进阶到下半场的智能化。
上周末，各路大佬在电动汽车百人会论坛上唇枪舌战激情开辩。
先是华为车BU董事长余承东当着小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏的面放言，“过去智驾（智能驾驶）做得最好的是何小鹏，但我们来了就改写了。”
紧接着上台演讲的百度集团副总裁、智能驾驶事业群组总裁王云鹏更是喊话“百度（智能驾驶）比华为领先一点点。”王云鹏还邀请比亚迪创始人王传福体验萝卜快跑无人车，“王传福老总说无人驾驶是扯淡是忽悠，可能是因为他没有乘坐过”。
因为MEGA争议风波，一向活跃于舆论场的理想汽车创始人李想罕见缺席（过去三年均有参加）。3月前两周，理想首款纯电车型MEGA评价两极分化，李想沉默10天后，在朋友圈发文，“我们决定反击，用光明反击黑暗。”时至今日，李想微博仍未复更。
但早在2月底苹果被曝放弃Titan造车计划时，李想发文称，“苹果聚焦人工智能AI是绝对正确的战略选择，时间点也合适。人工智能会成为所有设备、服务、应用、交易的最顶层入口，苹果的必争之战。”
各大核心玩家都单方面宣布自己的智驾技术领先，究竟谁更胜一筹？
特斯拉“杀死了”比赛
人人都说自己的智驾领先，但实际上国内头部车企的智驾水平还没有一家具备明显优势。
首先，在现有技术和法规制约下，各家L3级以下智驾能力从实际体验来看差别不大，如今更多比拼工程落地能力，即谁能在保证安全的前提下更快向更多城市道路开放使用。
其次，再往上探的L3级智能驾驶，国内受限于法规暂时无法全面上路，且人车责任难划分；L4级及以上智能驾驶技术（即无人驾驶）投资大，难落地。
苹果投资上百亿美元以放弃告终，福特与大众联手投资的自动驾驶公司Argo AI烧光36亿美元后倒闭并解散。
最重要的是，特斯拉对智能驾驶技术范式的颠覆式创新，将促使国内智驾进行新一轮洗牌。
在此之前，智能驾驶的实现依赖于规则判断，即不断丰富、迭代代码，让规则尽善尽美以增强控制驾驶的能力。
而特斯拉FSD v12（全自动驾驶 v12版本）彻底推翻了以往的做法，转而利用神经网络“模仿人类”以突破智能驾驶上限。
“没有一行代码告诉它减速通过减速带，没有一行代码要求它在停车标识下停下或是需要等待几秒......什么规则都没有，它完全是在学着人类做事。”马斯克说。
FSD v12的工作流程可以简单理解为，车载摄像头将图像数据反馈至神经网络，神经网络依据反馈数据作出如转向、加速等驾驶决策，不需要激光雷达和高精地图作为辅助。
类似于人眼看到台阶，反馈给人脑，人脑给出抬脚迈上台阶的指令。
2023年8月26日，特斯拉CEO马斯克在X（原twitter）平台上进行了45分钟的FSD v12试驾直播，他将其称为有史以来第一个端到端AI自动驾驶系统。FSD的C++代码也从v11的30多万行，锐减至2000余行。
与此前马斯克迟迟未能实现的自动驾驶豪言不同，FSD v12功能已开始对普通车主开放。
特斯拉在官宣三个月（去年11月）后便向内部员工推行内测；再过一个月（去年12月），又向1.5万员工推送了v12.1版本；今年1月，首次向约100位美国媒体推送v12.1.2；2月19日，首次向普通车主推送FSD v12；3月13日，特斯拉开始推送更新版本v12.3，马斯克称其为“重大发布”。
如今业内已有共识：基于大模型的端到端自动驾驶，是未来最有希望实现更高阶智能驾驶、甚至无人驾驶的途径。
在上周六的电动车百人会上，何小鹏表示小鹏的端到端AI智驾大模型将在今年二季度上车。另据晚点Auto消息，蔚来计划今年上半年推出端到端架构的主动安全功能，理想汽车的端到端AD智驾系统也将在今年上线。
一向被认为智能化慢于新势力车企的比亚迪，在今年1月发布了自研的璇玑AI大模型，使得智能驾驶与智能座舱互联，并与车辆的动力总成、悬架等部分机械硬件打通。
当然，国内车企在短时间内或许很难追赶上特斯拉的智驾能力。
来AI DRIVR
除端到端自动驾驶外，特斯拉还在研发“具备预测未来”能力的世界模型。“特斯拉在大约一年前就能精确的生成真实世界的视频。”马斯克在OpenAI官宣Sora不久后发文称，目前FSD训练算力不足，等今年晚些时候，有空余算力时将训练生成更多视频。
在真实的驾驶场景中，即便是人类驾驶员也有可能因为遮挡和亮度问题无法预测车道车辆变化。这正是世界模型计划解决的棘手难题。
而目前，国内车企暂时难以同时进行端到端自动驾驶和世界模型的研究。
燃油车做智驾天然“瘸腿”
随着新能源进入智能化比拼，燃油车能搞智能化吗？这一老生常谈的问题再一次出现在舆论场。
燃油车能进行智能化吗？答案是肯定的。普遍被人认可的第一辆“自动驾驶”汽车就是燃油车——诞生于1961年的Stanford Cart。当时，Stanford Cart已经可以利用摄像头和人工智能系统绕过障碍物。
中国的第一辆互联网汽车上汽荣威RX5也是燃油车，Waymo、百度等公司在无人驾驶研究之初，用的测试车林肯MKZ亦是燃油车。
大疆车载便看中了燃油车智能化市场的潜力。
大疆车载业务负责人沈劭劼也在电动汽车百人会上宣布将高阶智驾的能力下放到8万-25万元市场区间，并提出覆盖燃油车、混动车、纯电动车的“油电同智”理念。上汽大众途观L Pro将是首款搭载大疆车载智能驾驶解决方案的燃油车。
能否被智能化，与车辆的驱动形式无关，与电子电气架构有关。
但问题在于，传统燃油车以机械传导为主，电子控制单元分布在车身各处，难以调动，传统电机基本只用做点火，很难有更多功能。将燃油车过往的分布式架构调整为域控或者是中央集中式，或许也能有媲美电动车的智能化表现。
燃油车难以解决的智能化短板在于发动机响应速度无法媲美电机。
正如中国科学院院士欧阳明高所言，发动机控制的精确性无法跟电机控制相提并论，反应的时间也无法相提并论。从市场表现看，目前新能源汽车的自动驾驶普及率也大大高于燃油汽车。
欧阳明高强调，中国是汽车智能化领先的国家之一，电动汽车具有智能化的先天优势，燃油车自动驾驶无法跟电动汽车相竞争。
小满工作室 | 腾讯新闻出品
第1148期
运营排版：豆子
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.15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, 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.8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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