有人说，股票越跌越安全，只要耐心等待，总能回本的。事实上，这个说法完全是刻舟求剑。目前，A股已经不再有全面的“疯牛”，而是出现了严重的分水岭。有些股票越跌越贵，越下跌，越是看不到反弹的希望。

三只松鼠作为零食行业的知名上市公司，最高股价曾飙到89元，最低跌到15元以下，3月15日收盘价20.6元，比最高价跌去了70%多。但是三只松鼠的市盈率TTM仍然高达41倍。

日前，在四川糖酒会上，三只松鼠高管对外宣布：三只松鼠依托“高端性价比”走出至暗时刻，2024年有望创历史新高。

另外，三只松鼠也找自媒体开始炒作“老板章燎原走出至暗时刻”。磐石之心认为，三只松鼠的宣传存在对股民的严重误导，有蓄意炒作股价的嫌疑。

营收持续下滑，利润全靠节约开支

每个股民都想要买到“戴维斯双击”的股票，营收和利润双增长。如果仅仅利润出现增长，那么就要好好研究下，利润的来源了。

三只松鼠第三季度财报显示，公司实现营收45.82亿元，同比下降14.07%；实现净利润1.70亿元，同比增长81.42%；扣非净利润8557万元，同比增长198.85%。

营收下滑，利润却大幅增长，发生了什么？仔细研究前三季度财报，可以看到，前三季度，三只松鼠的销售费用为8.24亿元，同比下滑31.57%；管理费用为1.63亿元，同比下滑17.39%；研发费用为0.187亿元，同比下滑34.45%。

这三项费用节省了4亿元，这才实现了净利润1.7亿元。如果这些费用没有如此大幅度减少，三只松鼠的净利润很可能是亏损的！

因此，这是一份并不健康的财报，投资者对这份财报也开始用脚来投票，2023年10月23日，三只松鼠股价跌至16.8元，创新当时一年来的最低价。

凭什么走出至暗时刻？

显然，三只松鼠进入了上市以来的“至暗时刻”。对此，外界有很多分析，比如，三只松鼠诞生于电商，一直对电商的依赖度超过70%，导致无法发挥全渠道优势。也有人认为，三只松鼠与良品铺子、洽洽食品等坚果零食之间的惨烈价格战，影响了利润。

而对于深陷“至暗时刻”的三只松鼠，他们也提出了自救的方式——高端性价比。“高端性价比”这个词语本身就十分矛盾，高端产品，怎么还有“性价比”？对此，三只松鼠的解释是，“高端性价比”的本质是从原料、制造到交付的一二三产深度融合下生产经营效率大幅提升的先进生产力。

不知道各位读者看懂了没有？我反正是没看懂这句话的含义。有很多消费者吐槽：“三只松鼠过度包装，拆开后，能吃的东西很少。”难道重视外包装，就是高端？

如果从第三季度财报来看，似乎“高端性价比”战略的最大作用是砍成本，即减少营销、人员开支和研发费用。

其实，三只松鼠所面临的问题是显而易见的。

首先，线下渠道缩减，短视频必须加码。2022年开始，三只松鼠便开启了线下闭店潮，这也是其销售费用降低的原因。但是2023年开始天猫、京东的销量下滑，抖音销量增长，又导致必须采取低价策略，大幅牺牲了利润。

其次，不打价格战，没有生存空间。良品铺子、洽洽食品这两个同行的营收和利润也都在下滑。具体的萎缩原因，可能由于坚果零食市场门槛低，短视频营销兴起，导致大量小品牌也可以获得销量，从而蚕食了头部品牌的营收。

坚果零食市场根本做不起高端，因为产品同质化竞争，几乎没有护城河。如果不参与价格战，你连在市场上存在的机会都失去了。所以，三只松鼠的“高端性价比”战略几乎是无法实现的。

而且随着价格战加剧，三只松鼠节约各种成本，导致对产品和服务的投诉越来越多。在黑猫投诉上，有3455条投诉，许多投诉涉及产品品质，比如，发霉、变质、有异物等。而在12315投诉平台上，也有超过600多条投诉，同样多数涉及产品品质问题。

股价越跌越贵，请别误导股民

三只松鼠的股价持续下跌，最近反弹了30%。但是并不意味着股价能继续上涨，因为三只松鼠依靠“节流”而非“开源”导致的利润上涨总是会到达极限。

而且随着短视频渠道成为主流，三只松鼠必须继续参与价格战，利润还将被“打骨折”。这也意味着，三只松鼠的市盈率并不会随着股价下跌而变小，也不意味着三只松鼠越来越具备投资价值。

只能说，坚果零食赛道的红利期已经到顶，如今正在走下坡路。股价也自然会反映这种下跌趋势。

因此，三只松鼠大肆传播“走出至暗时刻”是否存在误导股民，虚假宣传的嫌疑？

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