导语:华为竞争、客户减配、技术转向和美国制裁,堪称四把改变整个激光雷达行业的利刀。
3月12日,禾赛科技(HSAI.US)公布了2023年第四季度及全年未经审计的财务数据。财报显示,2023年禾赛营收为18.8亿元,同比增长56.1%,累计交付激光雷达超30万台。
禾赛联合创始人及CEO李一帆,将2023年定义为 “刷新纪录的一年”。
成立于2014年的禾赛科技,最开始专注研发激光气体传感器,后在2016年涉足无人驾驶激光雷达产品。得益于汽车行业智能驾驶对激光雷达需求的增长,禾赛科技去年登陆纳斯达克,荣膺中国赴美上市的国产激光雷达第一股。
2023年全年,禾赛科技的激光雷达交付量为22.21万台。销量同比增长176.1%,近乎翻倍。
但从2019年至今,禾赛科技连年亏损,合计超11亿元。今年是禾赛上市首年,4.76亿元净亏损,属历年最高。
同时,毛利率也逐年走低,从2019年的70.3%,一路降到2023年的35.2%。
与之一致的,则是逐年走高的各项成本。2023年全年,销售和营销费用、一般及行政费用和研发费用,均同比增长42%以上。
按制造业的规律,在规模增长的微笑曲线拐点之后,禾赛科技才会迎来大规模盈利的时刻,但在此之前,华为竞争、客户减配、技术转向和美国制裁,堪称四把改变整个行业的“激光刀”,会一直悬在禾赛科技头上。
华为:降维打击的三体星人
激光雷达是自动驾驶系统中最为关键的技术,相当于车辆的“眼睛”。
车企配置的自动驾驶,其核心零部件,大多从专业做激光雷达的上游公司采购。截至去年11月,国内车载激光雷达累计交付已超45万台。
其中,能实现车规量产交付的国内公司,主要包括禾赛科技和图达通、华为、速腾聚创(2498.HK)等3家公司。
从市场份额来看,盖世汽车研究院公布的2023年1月-5月数据显示,禾赛科技市场份额占比近50%,图达通、华为和速腾聚创紧随其后,分别为27.5%、15.4%和7.4%。
禾赛科技遥遥领先,但追赶者不容小觑。
对于禾赛科技而言,图达通和速腾聚创,只是激光雷达领域内的觊觎者,不足为患。至于,全方位俯视车生态的华为,完全是降维打击的“三体星人”。
2020年年底,禾赛还没拿下理想汽车(2015.HK/LI.O)这个客户,华为就推出了96线车规级激光雷达,并率先用于北汽新能源旗下车型。
这是国内第一个量产的车规级激光雷达。此前,国外也只有16线程的法雷奥量产。
华为的激光雷达售价仅200美元,受到各大车企热捧。北汽极狐HBT,每台车就安装了三个。除此之外,包括长城(601633.SH)、长安(000625.SZ)、哪吒、奇瑞和阿维塔等,纷纷与华为牵手合作。
标准普尔子公司S&P Global报告显示,截至2023年4月,与华为激光雷达合作的整车厂(OEM)已有10家。排名全球第二,比禾赛还排名2名。
减配,非全系
随着技术积淀和成本考量,很多车企已经开始自研、或直接投资激光雷达厂商,比如蔚来(9866.HK/NIO.N)。
去年4月,蔚来斥资2.5亿美元在无锡建厂,主要从事激光雷达生产销售和研发。9月,蔚来宣布自研的激光雷达主控芯片量产。
虽然目前激光雷达主要采购自图达通,但两家是深度绑定的关系——从2018年至今,蔚来多次投资图达通。
图达通被业界看作是半个“蔚来系”公司,以至于蔚来NT2.0平台的全系车型,均标配了图达通猎鹰激光雷达。值得玩味的是,蔚来还主导了这款雷达的主板设计。
而没有与客户达成深度绑定关系的禾赛科技,与迄今最大的客户理想汽车的合作车型,并未扩展至理想全系。
理想L系列7、8和9,只有MAX版本标配了激光雷达,而Pro或Air版本选配则需加价4万左右。据理想体验店销售顾问介绍,“店交的L7,带激光雷达的顶配大概占比10%-20%。整个北京和全国,大家主要卖的都是Air和Pro,而不是MAX”。
除了理想,禾赛科技的其他客户,比如高合、路特斯、和汽飞凡,不是宣布停工停产,就是销量惨淡;或者已经宣布与禾赛合作,但至今尚未落地任何车型。
即将在3月底发布的小米汽车,也是禾赛科技的客户。虽然被寄予厚望,但新能源“价格战”正酣,其激光雷达配备策略,大概率也会和理想汽车一样,在车型和定价上有所区别。
2024年一季度未竟,禾赛正面临“存量客户主动或被动减配减价,增量客户或自建自研或直接投资竞品”的开局。
“平替”技术
虽然激光雷达被视为自动驾驶的“眼睛”,具有更好的实时建模能力,但也因为成本过高,且雨雾天气效果不佳,广为人诟病。因此,围绕“激光雷达or纯视觉or毫米波雷达”的技术路线之争,从未停歇。
抛弃激光雷达转向纯视觉方案的代表,是特斯拉(TSLA.O)。
自2022年2月起,特斯拉将北美市场model S和model X车型安装的激光雷达全部取消,正式确立纯视觉方案路线,并给出相关解释:后者噪点等干扰信号更少,系统收集到的数据更“干净”。
马斯克本人多次公开唱衰激光雷达,称其是“一种过时的技术”。
对马斯克来说,成本也是一个重要考量。纯视觉摄像头模组的成本,仅为激光雷达的约8%-15%。
与特斯拉不同,中国新势力一开始都是“激光雷达派”。但在去年开始的降价浪潮下,动辄过万的单个选配费用,让消费者的支付意愿越来越低。
激光雷达从过去的“香饽饽”,成了各大车企降本大势下的“烫手山芋”。
减配降价第一刀,先砍向激光雷达。
有专业人士认为,激光雷达为最终视觉感知提供二次确认,是感知冗余的补充,而非必须。
比如,小鹏汽车(9868.HK/XPEV.N)就在2024款舍弃了激光雷达,凭借视觉方案实现了高速NGP和LCC+ACC辅助驾驶,同时支持智能泊车;理想汽车只有高阶车型使用,且在去年4月的上海车展和8月的科技日上,都没有谈及激光雷达。
就连一向坚持全系标配激光雷达的蔚来,也有所动摇。蔚来智能驾驶研发副总裁任少卿提及激光雷达,也只是“提供安全冗余”。第二品牌阿尔卑斯,正在考虑舍弃激光雷达。
截至目前,国内多家自动驾驶研发商和集成商,基于纯视觉的L3以上自动驾驶解决方案,可落地的产品已经呼之欲出。一位自动驾驶业内人士预测,2025年之前,国内至少有3家主机厂,具备在全场景辅助驾驶上完全落地纯视觉能力。
除了有可能被纯视觉完全取代,入市更早的毫米波雷达,因其成本更低、恶劣天气适应性更强、抗干扰能力强等优势,也在重新夺回激光雷达的市场份额。
尤其是,当“价格战”白热化,车企开始恢复使用毫米波雷达。去年3月,比亚迪(002594.SZ)旗下弗迪科技正式对外发布新一代RF1平台前向毫米波雷达,并随新车搭载交付。
美国风险
美国的制裁风险,或对禾赛科技的芯片和美股融资,构成直接威胁。
今年2月1日,美国国防部将禾赛科技列入制裁名单。直接的负面影响是,有关美国本土及相关方的生意,禾赛科技无法再进行。
这项禁令,对于业务主要集中在国内的禾赛影响不大。但是,如果制裁进一步加码,如禁止从美国采购芯片、禁止被美国投资者交易(即股票退市),那将是釜底抽薪的打击。
在这两个潜在预期的担忧下,禾赛单日暴跌46%。此后继续下跌,如今禾赛已跌去IPO首发市值近80%。
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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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