准确判断青藏高原雨季的起止时间是研究重点也是难点,崔安宁、吕厚远等在《中国科学:地球科学》中英文版发表文章,通过寻找日降水拐点的方法确定了高原不同地点的雨季起、止时间,雨季时长和雨季降水量,并建立了其与孢粉组合的定量关系,重建了青藏高原过去2000年来雨季的时空变化,揭示了四种降水模式。该研究对分析西风-季风耦合作用有重要科学意义。
青藏高原不同区域雨季时长及雨季降水量的长尺度定量重建,是揭示高原西风、季风时空演变规律及其生态环境效应的关键,其中准确判断高原不同地点的雨季起、止时间是研究难点。中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所崔安宁和吕厚远等通过寻找日降水拐点的方法,建立了高原不同地点的雨季起、止时间与现代孢粉组合的转换函数关系,定量重建了具有年纹层沉积的高原北部库赛湖区和中部江错湖区过去2000年来的雨季降水量时空变化。
图1 现代表土孢粉样品点和化石孢粉点位置图。红色和蓝色虚线圈分别表示以库赛湖和江错为核心800km范围。灰色虚线表示西风模态区、季风模态区和西风-季风模态过渡区的界线(Yao等, 2013)。绿色样点:参与定量重建的现代表土孢粉点,蓝色样点:数据库中已有的现代表土孢粉点。
目前,大多数研究将每年的5~9月定义为高原雨季。但观测数据表明:雨季起止时间存在显著的区域空间差异,如果仅以时间上5~9月粗略的定义为整个高原的雨季,则容易使得雨季降水的重建结果出现偏差且无法对雨季时长进行精准重建。在气象学研究上,有学者将多年平均日(侯)降水量超过某一阈值的时间定义为高原雨季,其中雨季阈值的设定依赖于人为主观判断,并且降水阈值随着区域不同存在显著差异。
为了避免这一问题,采用综合降水强度、持续时间和累积降水量的“降水异常积累法”来寻找高原不同地区降水变化的“拐点”,降水突然增大的日期即为雨季开始时间,降水突然减少的日期即为雨季结束时间,再根据雨季起、止时间来计算高原不同地点的雨季时长和雨季降水量。
图2 江错湖区和库赛湖区多年平均日降水及其累积距平结果。(a) 江错湖区和(c) 库赛湖区多年平均(1980~2010年)日降水及其高斯拟合曲线(红色线),(b)江错多年平均日降水的距平累积(红色线)及其日降水距平(绿色线),(d) 库赛湖多年平均日降水的距平累积(红色线)及其日降水距平(青色线)。
利用“降水异常积累法”计算得出:在1980~2010年间,江错湖区雨季开始于第135天(5月15日),结束于第272天(9月29日),雨季持续138天,雨季降水量达396 mm(图2a, 2b);库赛湖区雨季开始于第155天(6月4日),结束于第259天(9月16日),雨季持续105天,雨季降水量达162 mm(图2c, 2d)。
用同样的方法,计算了江错和库赛湖周边800km范围内的现代表土孢粉点(图1中绿色样点,共计2120个)的雨季起止时间、雨季时长和雨季降水量,并分别构建了其孢粉组合的转换函数,定量重建了高原北部库赛湖区和中部江错湖区过去2000年来的雨季起止时间、雨季时长和雨季降水量变化。
图3. 过去2000年雨季降水量、雨季起止时间及雨季时长重建序列。基于库赛湖芯孢粉定量重建的雨季降水量(a)、雨季时长(b)、雨季开始时间(c)及雨季结束时间(d);基于江错湖芯孢粉定量重建的雨季降水量(e)、雨季时长(f)、雨季开始时间(g)及雨季结束时间(h)。蓝色条带指示湿润期,黄色条带指示干旱期。
结果表明:过去2000以来,库赛湖区雨季降水序列记录了5次高降水时段:580~680AD,1000~1100AD,1200~1450AD,1550~1780AD和1920至今,其普遍对应雨季天数长的时段;江错湖区雨季降水序列记录了4次高降水时段:80~500 AD,800~950AD,1250~1450AD和1780至今,其与雨季天数长的时段在1000AD以前对应良好,在1000AD后关系不明确(图3)。
图4. 过去2000年来雨季降水重建序列及与其他记录对比(a) 库赛湖雨季降水量;(b) 江错雨季降水量;(c) 库赛湖雨季时长;(d) 江错雨季时长;(e) 太阳辐射变率(Steinhilber等, 2009);(f) 印度夏季风强度序列,723A孔浮游有孔虫百分含量(空心圆)(Gupta等, 2003)和RC2730孔浮游有孔虫丰度(实心圆)(Anderson等, 2002);(g) 基于石笋(红色线, Baker等, 2015)、树轮(黑色线,Trouet等, 2009)重建的NAO指数序列。
在空间上,高原雨季降水呈现出“南北同湿”、“南北同旱”、“南湿北旱”和“南旱北湿”四种模式,其中“南北同湿”可能与异常强盛的夏季风有关,“南北同旱”与弱西风和弱季风有关,“南湿北旱”与强季风和弱西风有关,“南旱北湿”与弱季风和强西风有关(图4)。
论文首次从雨季降水的角度揭示了高原2000年来雨季起止时间、时长及降水量的时空演变模式,为进一步认识西风、季风耦合作用提供了自然背景的支持。
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#8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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