摘要
1、今天,A股午后突发跳水,创业板指跌近2%,人工智能板块大幅调整,北向资金净流入超55亿元,后市会怎么走?
2、高股息板块逆势上涨,市场震荡,红利资产再迎机会?
3、首批基金年报披露,中庚基金丘栋荣最新操作曝光,后市看好这三大方向。
真话白话说财经,理财不说违心话
--这是第1102篇白话财经--
今天,此前大火的人工智能赛道集体调整让A股缺了火候,三大指数集体下跌,创业板指跌幅接近2%,有超4500只个股下跌。
(图片来源:东方财富APP,统计截至2024/3/25,不作投资推荐)
两市成交额连续第6个交易日突破万亿,达到了10434亿元,北向资金净流入55.71亿元。
盘面上,采掘、银行等高股息板块逆势上涨,半导体、传媒等人工智能相关板块大幅调整,加上“券商一哥”中信证券大跌4.88%,影响了市场情绪。
热门指数涨跌幅方面,
光伏产业
下跌1.03%
,
中证白酒
下跌1.04%
,
中证医疗
下跌1.21%
,
CS新能车
下跌2.01%
,
半导体
下跌3.55%
。
(数据来源:东方财富Choice数据,统计截至2024/3/25,不作投资推荐)
A股跳水,高股息板块逆势上涨
今天,煤炭采掘、银行地产等板块表现较为抗跌,而此前火热的AI相关板块下跌,形成了跷跷板效应。
中国神华发布的年报显示,公司拟派发高额现金红利,
之前被网友称为A股新的“YYDS”的
中国海油
、
陕西煤业
、
中国神华
、
紫金矿业
等龙头股集体上涨。
中国石油
上涨2.20%,股价再创多年新高。
(图片来源:
东方财富APP,统计截至2024/3/25,不作投资推荐)
对于红利资产的后市表现,兴业证券研报认为,
尽管短期拥挤度来到高位,但从中长期维度看,仍然看好红利板块的配置价值及其“新底仓资产”的属性。
兴业证券指出,一方面,即使经历上涨,红利板块股息率仍在高位。截至2024年3月15日,红利低波指数的股息率为5.67%,仍在相对高位。显示当前即使经历上涨,板块仍具备较高性价比。并且,红利资产的股息率与其的胜率与赔率均显著相关。
兴业证券还指出,本轮红利低波行情不同于以往的一点在于:随着股价上涨,红利低波的股息率中枢并未回落反而同步上行。
对21年以来红利低波指数股息率的变化进行拆分,可以看到分红总额的增长幅度超过市值增长幅度,从而拉动股息率的增长,为红利低波板块配置提供了更厚的安全垫。背后的一个重要原因是,板块上市公司的盈利能力和分红意愿的提升,而并非是“生拉硬拽”拔估值。
(图片来源:兴业证券研究所《2024年多头思维很重要
》,发布时间:2024/3/24,不作投资推荐)
另外兴业证券分析认为从资金面来看,红利板块仍或受到增量及存量的共同驱动。一方面,险资是未来市场重要的增量资金来源之一,盈利稳定、现金流充裕的红利低波板块天然受到注重投资安全边际的险资青睐。另一方面,截至2023Q4,无论从绝对持仓占比还是超配比例看,主动偏股基金仍然低配红利资产,仓位仍有提升空间。
(图片来源:兴业证券研究所《2024年多头思维很重要》,发布时间:2024/3/24,不作投资推荐)
丘栋荣后市看好三大方向
最近,基金年报新鲜出炉,和季报不同的是,年报里会披露除了前十大重仓股以外的其他全部股票持仓,第11-20位重仓股也会被称为隐形重仓股,同时还会披露持有人结构等数据。
今天就来看看近期披露的中庚基金丘栋荣的年报。
从规模上来看,丘栋荣目前管理5只基金,管理规模达到了237.82亿元。
以丘栋荣管理规模最大的
中庚价值领航混合来看,年报新增了零跑汽车和东吴证券等隐形重仓股,显示出其对新能源汽车和金融证券行业的看好。同时,快手-W、康华生物、美团-W等科技和互联网股票也在其关注之列。这位百亿“舵手”的投资视野,显然不局限于传统行业,而是更加倾向于未来成长空间大的科技股和互联网股。
丘栋荣在年报里指出,
权益资产估值水平至历史低位,隐含回报是极高的。权益资产此时是值得承担风险的大类资产。
对于看好的细分三道,丘栋荣提到了三个方向:
“首先,关注业务成长属性强、未来空间较大的港股市场医药、智能电动车等科技股和互联网股;
其次,关注供给端收缩或刚性,但仍有较高成长性的价值股,主要行业包括基本金属
为代表的资源类公司和能源运输公司,大盘价值股中的地产、金融等;
第三,关注需求增长有空间、供给有竞争优势的高性价比公司,主要行业包括
电子、机械、医药制造、电气设备与新能源
、农林牧渔等
。”
总的来说,丘栋荣的投资布局显示出他对成长股的偏爱,尤其是在医药、智能电动车、科技股和互联网股等领域。他的策略主要还是在市场低迷时期寻找估值合理、基本面持续改善的投资机会。
A股反弹还能延续吗?
面对近期的调整,不少小伙伴会有些迷茫,经历了短期的上涨后,A股还能走多远?
海通证券研报指出,
当前仍处在底部第一波向上反弹行情中。
回顾过去四次大盘筑底的第一波反弹行情,行情往往持续2-3个月左右、指数涨幅25%-30%左右。本轮行情目前持续约1.5个月,上证综指自低点最大涨幅为17%,沪深300为16%,万得全A为25%,对比历史来看本轮行情或尚未结束。但我们认为,对照历史本轮行情上涨速率明显较快,市场也积累了一定的获利盘压力,接下来也应注意,短期市场上涨节奏或有放缓。
(图片来源:海通证券研究所《
关注积极的信号
》,发布时间:2024/3/24,不作投资推荐)
总之,有涨有跌才是市场常态,就算是牛市也不会是一步登天的,在这个多变的市场中,把握住正确的投资方向,均衡配置,或许才能在波动中更好地前行。
投资指标
牛散高位接盘建设机械
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