每年春天，半导体产业最让人期待的盛会莫过于闪存大会和SEMICON。
今天来聊聊闪存大会（CFMS | MemoryS 2024）。3月20日，2024年闪存大会在深圳前海举行，大会汇集了全球三大存储原厂以及众多产业链企业。据主办方透露，今年大会总参与企业超过1500家，预计到场人数超过4000人。
现场确实热闹。从上午八点开始就人潮涌动，会议厅内一座难求，厅外的走廊人挤人。如此火热的场景不由让人对半导体产业的未来充满希望。
同样让人感到希望的是CFM闪存市场最新的研究数据。下面，分享一下闪存市场总经理邰炜在大会报告《存储周期、激发潜能》中提到的几个市场的好消息及产业趋势。
4个好消息
1、存储市场规模今年重回正轨。
存储市场规模连续两年下降，2023年NAND Flash规模398亿美元，DRAM规模505亿美元。不过，今年开始，存储市场规模重新回到正轨。在先进技术以及新兴市场应用的带动下，闪存市场预计今年市场规模相较去年提升42%以上。
总产量上，NAND FLASH将超过8000亿GB当量，比去年增长20%；DRAM预计增长15%，达到2370亿Gb当量。
2、预计到今年Q1，绝大部分存储企业利润率将得到全面有效的扭转。
原厂利润率自2023年Q1触底后，开始转向可观的改善，个别公司甚至已经开始恢复盈利。预计到今年Q1，绝大部分存储企业利润率将得到全面有效的扭转。
2023年存储原厂的市占率上，NAND Flash市场方面，三星、SK海力士、铠侠、西部数据、美光的市占率分别是33%、18%、18%、15%、11%。DRAM市场方面，三星、SK海力士、美光、南亚、华邦的市占率分别是41%、32%、23%、2%、1%。
3、预计今年存储市场后续三个季度的价格将保持平稳向上的趋势
去年三季度起，原厂开始强势减产并拉涨价格，现货市场价格迎来全面反弹。随着今年一季度价格的再次大涨，闪存市场预计今年后续三个季度的价格将保持平稳向上的趋势。不过，邰炜先生表示，过高过快涨幅将严重影响终端产品线的规划、打击容量扩充的积极性，不利于产业整体健康稳定的发展，呼吁市场理性。
4、三大核心应用终端已经基本上突破了黑暗期。
手机、PC、服务器这三大核心应用终端已经基本上突破了黑暗期。加上AI手机、AI PC、AI服务器等新兴应用的推动，预计今年将实现温和增长。其中，预计手机今年将实现4%的增长；PC将实现8%的增长；服务器将实现4%的增长。
4个产业趋势
作为周期性行业，存储市场在2019年-2023年经历了供过于求-疫情-缺货-库存-超跌的周期变化。这一轮周期最后在原厂主动减产中结束。展望2024-2026年新一轮周期，闪存市场认为，新技术和AI应用将激发存储市场活力，带动存储产业从传统的“价格周期”走向新的“价值周期”，提供更高价值的存储解决方案将是未来存储厂商的核心竞争力。
新周期会有以下几个技术趋势：
1、堆叠技术上，3D NAND继续向高堆叠进发。去年各大原厂均推出200层以上的产品，今年很多已经朝300层推进，这也意味更低成本、更大容量、更快速度的闪存产品将陆续到来。
2、架构上看，Bonding键合技术开始进入主流。主要原因是，随着堆叠层数提升，键合技术更具有成本优势。此外，键合技术可以将更多特性融入到NAND Flash里，更好地激发存储潜能。
3、随着终端产品追求越来越大的存储容量，QCL的应用开始加速。除了传统的SSD产品，QCL在其他应用领域比如UFS、uMCP、服务器SSD等将开始得到全面扩展。
4、DRAM全面进入EUV时代。各原厂开始推出全新DRAM产品，下一代产品也将在1~2年时间内出现。
4大市场未来趋势
目前，手机、PC、服务器仍是NAND和DRAM的主要应用领域，消耗了NAND、DRAM超80%产能，汽车市场则是存储产品的下一个主力应用。
1、手机市场方面，UFS的市场占有率进一步提升，并占据绝对的主导地位，其中UFS4.0增长更为明显。手机容量上，高端机型基本进入512G以及TB时代，预计今年手机平均容量将超过200G；内存上则朝LPDD5/X演进，预计今年全年DRAM平均容量将超过7G。
AI手机作为手机市场的新热点，16B的DRAM将成为其最低配置，推动手机存储再次升级。
2、PC市场方面，去年1TB PCIe4.0已基本是PC市场的主流配置。DRAM上，预计LPDDR，尤其是LPDDR5/X将迎来迅速发展。随着Windows10停止服务，Windows的更新也会对24年的PC销量带来提振。另外，AI PC预计在2024年全面爆发。
3、服务器市场方面，DDR5应用在2024年正式超过50%。随着支持DDR5第二代服务器CPU平台在2024年推出，DDR5 5600速率会在今年下半年进入主流。AI服务器除了搭载HBM外，对DDR5的容量需求是普通服务器的2-4倍。随着AI服务器需求大增，将同步带动未来5年DRAM需求大涨。
高容量存储模组上，2024年各大原厂都将推出32Gb单die，使得128GB模组可以跳过TSV这一环节，为128GB模组进入服务器主流市场扫清最主要的障碍。
此外，CXL进入实用阶段，开启内存池化新时代。加上2024年各大原厂HBM3e进入量产，今年服务器内存的升级将非常激进。
服务器SSD方面，2024年服务器PCIe5.0 SSD的渗透率将较2023年翻倍成长，更多8TB/16TB及以上PCIe SSD在服务器市场上的应用增加。
4、汽车是存储产品的下一个主力应用。闪存市场预计，到2030年整个汽车存储市场规模将超过150亿美元。伴随着L3级及以上自动驾驶汽车逐步落地，汽车对存储的性能和容量的要求将提升，单车存储容量会很快进入TB时代。
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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}
