近日,上海财经大学校长刘元春就如何看待中国当前经济形势发表观点,本文节选其中部分,包括对内需不足成因的分析、如何看待居民消费信心不足的问题、资本市场的竞价体系面临的重构与分化以及外贸与国际竞争战略。
针对内需不足的问题,刘元春认为受疫情冲击、人们消费信心不足是次要因素,更关键的因素在于我国居民收入占GDP的比重过低、社会保障体系存在缺口以及投资的问题。在回应居民消费信心不足这一问题时,刘元春指出要采取中国的传统“药方”,即标本兼治的手段,特别是收入分配、社会建设等方面的深度改革。
内需不足的成因
内需不足的表象,好像是受疫情冲击、人们消费信心不足所导致的,但这只是一个次要因素。更关键的因素在于:第一,在收入分配格局方面,我国居民收入占GDP的比重过低,导致居民实际上用于消费基金的比重相对过低,储蓄就会天然过高。不是我们的居民不能消费,而是我们目前的整体收入水平还不能支撑我国在迈向高收入国家门槛值的同时,消费支出也迈向高收入国家门槛值。
第二,我国的整个社会安全网、社会建设滞后于经济建设,社会保障体系还存在一些巨大的缺口。
最为典型的是幼儿养育,欧美基本上将幼儿养育纳入了国家体系,但这在我国依然属于个人成本的范畴。在考量各种时间、金钱成本之后,大家当然不愿意生育。生育率的下降,实际上也对支出的下降有很大影响。老年人的消费也一样,如果我们缺乏良好的康养体系、养老体系,老年人当然只能通过自我储蓄来进行养老。
我国的消费升级和消费高端化之所以停滞不前,原因就在于虽然我国经济已进入高收入国家门槛值,但是社会体系、收入体系还不具备高收入国家的基本特征,这几大滞后直接导致我国的消费率过低。
第三是投资的问题。
目前投资方面最头疼的是民间投资,而不是政府类投资。
2023年政府类投资的增速约为7%,但是民间投资下降了0.4%,因此扩投资的关键在于民营企业。要坚持两个“毫不动摇”,对民营企业产权的保护要加大力度,让民营企业家感受到资产资本的安全性和可持续性。此外,要保障民营企业的生存空间和民营资本的可获利性。如果民营企业发现想要投资的领域进不去,开放投资的领域又不赚钱,这样他们一定不会投资的。
此外,民间投资负增长的核心原因还是房地产的调整,扣除房地产,其他行业的民营投资依然达到百分之八、九的增长,实际上并不低。
比如民营企业对高新技术的投资增速达到两位数,对制造业的投资增速也超过8%。很多人讲,资本“躺平”了,实际上资本是否躺平因行业而异,有盈利的地方、有希望的地方,资本从来都不会“躺平”。
如何看待居民消费信心不足的问题?
第一,
目前的消费降级和消费信心不足,在后疫情时代实际上是一个常态化现象。历史上,大疫大灾之后,出现消费收缩是正常的、阶段性的现象,不能过度渲染,但也不能简单化。
第二,
很多人认为,应对消费不振的现象,我们按照美国的政策来“抄作业”就好了,通过“直升机撒钞票”和“天上掉馅饼”,我们就能解决这个问题。实际上,我们不可能“抄”美国的“作业”。因为按照美国的逻辑来做,采取15%、16%的赤字率、大规模地进行扩表和补贴,我国的通货膨胀率可能不止像美国从百分之二点几上升到9.1%,而是可能会从百分之二点几上升到16%、17%的水平。这不是我们要的结果。
原因很简单,美国的钞票发行是他们自己获收益、全世界担成本,80%的成本由全世界人民承担。但我国进行短期刺激、“大水漫灌”,可能95%的成本要由我们自己承担,只有5%的成本外溢到其他国家。
因此在解决目前的问题时,我们要采取中国的传统“药方”,即标本兼治的手段,特别是收入分配、社会建设等方面的深度改革。
“共同富裕”就非常重要,让老百姓都有钱,贫富差距不能过大。要完善收入分配制度,社保体系要做到全覆盖、全国统筹和服务均等化,改变现在的二元体系或多元体系。我们要实现社会主义现代化,但目前我国部分人口在农村,部分在城市,还有部分农民工游离于城市与农村之间,这种碎片化不可能是现代化的本质,是需要解决的问题。当然,短期收入的提升也很重要,这几年,一些局部的返贫现象已经对全面脱贫带来了冲击,要引起重视。同时在短期内,也要对消费潜力进行挖掘,该发消费券就发消费券。
资本市场的竞价体系面临重构与分化
很多人把中国股市目前的表现,简单地解释为单一因素导致的现象。实际上,股市依然是国民经济的晴雨表,但是目前国民经济受到的冲击因素是多元的。
这是一个大时代,是以美国为主体的自由主义全球化时代的终结,逐步进入到多极化、利益重构和纷争化局面的新时代。
这导致资本市场的竞价体系面临重构,重构又面临分化:一方面,美国体系在纷争时代体现出强权、创新的能力,使其股票市场依然呈现出高涨的态势,货币市场呈现出超调现象;另一方面,外围国家则会出现一种相反的现象,因为风险都是两面的。
因此,在这个重构的世界,主体实际上就是中国和美国,美国股市和中国股市在这种格局性的变化中出现两极化重构是常态。大家要把这一点理解透彻,并不是我们做得不好,而是在这个重构的世界中,全世界的资本都会对风险、对未来发展做出选边,选边效应造就了目前的结果。
外贸与国际竞争战略
中国的外贸从2020年到现在已经受到了较大的冲击,特别是在后疫情时代,全球贸易从过去以效率为唯一指标的体系转向安全与效益并重,从而出现了结构性大调整,进一步产生了总量性的收缩效应。
今年,我们高新技术方面的贸易,会从欧美逐步向一些新兴国家进行转换。在一些地缘经济上也会发生重大的调整,比如中日、中韩、东亚格局会发生变化,中国与东盟十国的布局会有进一步的提升。我国与“一带一路”国家和一些新兴国家的贸易会进一步提升,因此要做好结构大调整这篇文章,尤其是深耕新兴国家快速布局的这篇文章。
2024年,我国也面临着一个很重要的节点,即美国经过几年“再工业化”的布局后,将进入到“开花结果”的阶段。但这个阶段对于他们来说,依然具有不确定性。美国虽然进行了大规模的投资,大规模的量产,但是否具有成本的可竞争性,2024年至2025年是一个检验期。而我国在外贸战略和国际竞争战略上,要高度重视这一节点期所带来的总量和结构性的效应。
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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: 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