两家公司都要纠正过去误判，然后等待新的决定取得成果

文 | 艾尔·鲁特（Al Root）

| 曹妍

今年以来，特斯拉（TSLA）和波音（BA）成为标普500指数中表现最差的两只股票。尽管市场存在随机现象，但结果也反映出一个关于投资、策略和心理学的故事。

今年年初至3月21日收盘，特斯拉股价下跌30.45%，波音股价下跌27.99%。而标普500指数今年上涨约9.89%。

从市场学角度来看，上述情形是有道理的，较高的盈利预期带动股票价值，指数变化源于预期变化。

反观波音和特斯拉，盈利预期均没有上升。分析师将特斯拉2024年和2025年盈利预期分别下调21%和25%。波音2024年盈利预期下降约26%，2025年预期则下降约9%。

波音2024年盈利预期下调更多，因为此前质量问题反复出现——例如一架新波音飞机门塞飞出，导致接受监管审查、产量下滑。波音的客户对于公司生产速度放缓感到沮丧——当前，市场对新飞机需求接近创纪录水平，航空旅行也超过疫情前数字。

特斯拉不存在质量问题，但面临着需求增长放缓、电动汽车竞争加剧的压力。此外，特斯拉的产品线比较陈旧，最畅销车型Model Y上市于2020年。

波音和特斯拉的问题看似不同，可根源却较为相似——两家公司都在承担多年前战略误判的后果，股东们现在才意识到失误。

波音现阶段问题源自2011年，当时公司发布了737 MAX机型（737改进版），以应对空客A320neo系列喷气式飞机的日益成功。

航空顾问和分析师为此争论，波音是否应该设计一款全新机型，而不是改装一架服役超过55 年的737飞机。许多参与者希望波音生产更昂贵、更长久的新机，但公司最终选择了后者。2024年，股东们为这一决定付出了代价。

特斯拉的先锋派电动皮卡（Cybertruck）在2019年亮相，优先于其他低成本车型。当时看来，这个决定是正确的——电动汽车的定价不是问题，而且全尺寸卡车占美国新车销量的很大一部分。

如今，这一决定看起来不再明智，电动皮卡昂贵且难以制造。特斯拉仍然无法为3万美元以下汽车买家提供产品和服务。与之对比，比亚迪（002594.SZ、1211.HK）凭借低价车型，成为全球最大新能源汽车制造商。

市场不会一下子就意识到错误。2019年3月，上市数年的MAX喷气式飞机发生悲惨事故后，波音股价约为每股440美元。2021年11月，电动皮卡亮相两年、CEO埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 相信特斯拉可以实现自动驾驶三年之后，公司股价突破每股400美元。到了3月21日，波音收盘价为187.70美元，特斯拉收盘价为172.82美元。

市场心理就是如此，成功的公司会被长期看涨。投资者本质是乐观的。但是当他们不再乐观，预期就会急转直下。

如今，两家公司都处于市场心理的“向我展示”阶段。马斯克对特斯拉未来市值的预测不再超过苹果（AAPL）和沙特阿美的市值总和。波音出现一系列问题后，投资者也忽视了公司新订单，转而卖出股票。

特斯拉和波音必须重新赢得投资者的信任——波音需要在增加飞机产量的同时，展示更高的产品质量；特斯拉则需按计划开发新的、有吸引力的全新车型，无论其自动驾驶技术进展如何。

简而言之，两家公司都要纠正过去的误判，然后等待新的决定取得成果。特斯拉计划于2025年推出更低价位车型，波音暂时没有开发新款飞机的打算。

迄今为止，标普500指数中表现最好的股票是英伟达（NVDA），今年已经上涨了84.64%，这家公司讲述了与人工智能相关的故事——投资者渴望参与到人工智能热潮之中。

版权声明：

《巴伦周刊》（barronschina）原创文章，未经许可，不得转载。英文版见2024年3月14日报道“Tesla and Boeing Are the Worst Stocks in the S&P 500 This Year. They’re Paying for Decisions Made Years Ago.”。 

（本文仅供参考，不构成任何形式的投资和金融建议；市场有风险，投资须谨慎。）

 | 要琢

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