每次央行高层的人事变动都像是换教练一样,可能会带来全新的打法。
就在3月19号傍晚,我们的央行公布了新的货币政策委员会委员名单,其中4人退出4人加入。
按照最新的规则,委员会里会有三位专家委员,他们的意见除了能直接影响到我们的钱包外,还能直接向一把手的一把手汇报自己的想法。
说他们是央行的亲信“军师”一点儿都不为过。
这次亲信“军师”换人,刘世锦、蔡昉退出,黄益平、黄海洲加入。
虽然你可能不太了解他们,但
他们的加入意味着央行可能会有一套全新的经济政策(主张)。
其中有三点跟以往的风格完全不一样。
第一点变化,
轻“改革”,更重“突破”
。
因为我看过不少蔡昉和黄益平的相关言论和期刊文章,所以刚一换人我就对这种变化有种异样的感觉。
为了说明这种感觉,我截取了某高端论坛上一届的军师代表蔡昉和这一届的军师代表黄益平近5年的研究方向。
先看蔡昉。
他研究的重心是“人口”、“改革”这两个关键字眼。从2010年开始(大概这个时间),他就多次建议要放宽生育政策,否则人口负增长会对经济先产生供给侧短缺的冲击,后产生需求侧不足的冲击。
最近两年,他极力主张通过农村户籍改革释放经济潜力。2023年,户籍改革可释放1.8亿农民工万亿消费的观点就出自他。
接下来看一下黄益平。
满屏幕你都能感觉到“数字”和“金融”这两个字眼的压迫力。他研究的核心是怎么提高金融系统的效率来支持经济。
就拿上图中最新的研究,你就能感觉到他多么想在推进数字金融效率方面有所突破,文章原话是这么说的:
“数字金融可以全方位提升和改善金融行业的效率、风控和触达,但最大的突破是在普惠领域,触达和覆盖了原来传统金融不能触达和覆盖的地方和人群。数字金融肯定会带来一些新的风险形态...”
如果你们再深入地看一看他们各自经济主张的细节,就更能感觉到:
一个是想通过改革解决原先阻碍经济增长的体制不足问题,一个是想挖掘数字金融靠创新提高金融效率支持经济。
这几年很现实的一个问题就是金融空转,央行货币政策效率低下。此次更换智囊团,也从侧面反映
高层更青睐能解决眼前问题、少动“根基”的“干吏”。
第二个变化是,重“总量”,轻“结构”,
大水漫灌的思想钢印已经种下。
那么,什么是总量,什么又是结构呢?
针对这几年企业投资少,消费也不够的经济压力问题,市场分为两派给出药方,一派认为应该加大货币和财政政策的力度,央行该降息多降息,财政该负债花钱投资就多负债花钱投资,全面的扩张起来,这就是总量政策;另一派则认为,某些行业有困难,我们应该多向这方面支持,比如地产搞三大工程、对支农支小发放贷款等,这些就属于结构性的政策。
更简单粗暴的理解,“总量”就是大水漫灌,“结构”就是精准滴灌。
新上升的两位军师2022年都提议要采取更大力度的总量政策,2023年黄益平也公开表示过:“首选总量政策,其次才是结构性政策。”
一周前,他还向最高层建议减少对新能源汽车等制造业的资金支持,以缓解低价竞争给国内制造业带来的“外部脱钩”压力。
由此可见他对总量政策的青睐。
再加上这三四年来我们的货币政策大多集中在“结构”而非“总量”,经济压力迟迟得不到缓解,很多学者都建议把阀门放大。
所以,接下来
央行很可能换种打法,全面印钱、M2继续疯狂往上冲。
这是大趋势!
第三个变化是,
“数字资产”的地位全面升级,或成为替代土地、房子的锚。
在说明这个问题之前,我们要弄明白“货币的锚”以前是什么,未来又会是什么。
我们都知道,现代货币是依赖债务(信用)而产生的,所以货币的锚本质上就是向银行借钱的人背后靠什么担保、靠什么收入还钱。
这几十年,绝大部分货币产生都极度依赖于地方手中的土地,企业手中的房子(和机器设备)。
现如今,这两个锚勾连在一起,一损俱损,估值都出了问题,你再拿着地皮、房子去贷款银行就不会给你贷太多。再加上,高层有意对地方和房地产去杠杆,以土地和房子为锚的货币只会越来越少。
如果不找到一个能更好替代土地和房子的东西来创造货币,只要不人为干预,流通中的钱只会越来越少,经济压力只会越来越大,陷入TS。
也正是如此,全世界都把下一代货币的锚聚焦在了“数字资产”。
何为“数字资产”?
一个连锁餐饮店多年的用餐数据(吃饭人年龄、喜好、消费偏好等数据)就是资产,一个人多年的信息数据(收入、社保、消费层次、社会关系等)就是资产。
只要你数据真实完整,你就可以凭借这些向银行贷款,贷款所产生的新货币就是以你的数据为锚而产生的。
说到这里不知道大家发现没有?
“黄海洲货币寻锚”本质上也是“黄益平数字金融”大课题下的根基,他们是一体的。
所以,
未来是拼“数字”的时代,对我们每个人而言,一定要保护好自己的征信,养护好自己的收入、消费和社交纪录。
以后要靠它,活得才能更方便!
当然,除了央行更换“军师”,这段时间还发生了不少其他事儿,比如副行长又强调降准、地产又有一家模范生摔倒、监管“清洗”小额贷款公司、日本加息了却又留了一手、马斯克给美国军方建设侦察卫星网络等等,都是一些看起来不疼不痒的变化,可收紧、脱钩的本质却完全没有变。
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.8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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