| 皑大佳
来源 | 大佳的投资笔记
导语：有很多资金在押注，万科一定不会暴雷。
所谓的“活”，指的是该投资品种 “不出现极大的风险从而极大地损害到投资本金。”
假如万科跌到碧桂园那种市值，那和“死”在本质上，就没有任何区别。
万科的风险是显而易见的。
即便是深圳地跌，再如何支持万科，都只能给企业提供一定时期的资金。
万科不在于资金短缺。
穆迪将万科的评级，一路下调到垃圾级，并不是因为担心万科的短期偿债能力，而是长期运营能力。
而对于这个运营能力的根本性担忧则在于：
未来房地产市场的销售情况。
如果今年房地产市场情况，继续延续。那么，万科的销售将会回到十年之前。
但销售回到十年之前，那么负债能够回到十年之前吗？
答案是显而易见的不能。万科现在明面上的负债是1.2万亿。看起来比恒大好一些。但负债的结构并不相同。
金融机构对于万科的介入，要比恒大要高的多。尤其是其中很多资金，风险偏好本身就非常小。万科如果债务暴雷，对市场的冲击力度，将会远大于恒大。
因此，有很多资金在押注，万科一定不会暴雷。
三十年国债期货，今年债券市场最火的品种。
相关的etf，今年都有远远超过权益市场的涨幅。
1，从基本面逻辑上来说：
相当部分的资金，对未来前景感到悲观。尤其是房地产是否能够平稳落地的前景。
2，从资金面逻辑上来说：
目前大量的资金淤积在金融机构市场。对于机构来说，无法寻找到确定性比较高的投资品种。最终，只能够投资国债。
3，从交易行为上来说：
当十年期国债已经足够内卷的之后，更多资金进入这个市场，只好大量买入比十年久期更长的三十年国债。同时，为了比较客观的收益，开始疯狂的上杠杆。
那么，三十国债期货的风险主要在于：
1，持续看空未来的利率，造成的一致性。
2，因为一致性造成的内卷，从而不停的增加杠杆。
当然杠杆并不一定会破裂。杠杆是否破裂，取决于方向发生了改变。
那么，押注三十年国债的资金，在下注未来利率一定会继续降低，甚至向日本一样零利率。即一个中国版的失去的三十年。
赌万科一定不会暴雷，实际上的赌的是什么？
赌的是，房地产市场一定会触底反弹，而不会像现在这样，毫无起色的不断下跌。
但房地产的惯性，决定着注定无法靠自身扭转。那么，能让房地产市场软着陆的反法，实际上就只有一个——非常强力的政策。这个政策一定不是单一的，局部的。而是复合式的，全局的政策。
且这个政策，一定非常花钱。
赌三十年国债能够继续上涨的，实际上的赌的是什么？
赌的是，房地产市场继续萧条，整个社会投资回报率进一步下降，从而导致十年期和三十年期国债利率进一步下降。
那么从根本上来说，赌的是不会出现超出日本当年强度的救市政策，从而无可避免的走向零利率。
到了这里，我们就会发现，押注万科不会爆雷的资金，以及押注三十年国债期货继续上涨的资金，对于未来政策的判断完全不同。
从市场的走势来说，三十年国债期货和房地产股的走势总是负相关。
1，传闻万科获得银团集体救援800亿的当天，万科大涨5%。
当天，三十年国债期货重挫，下跌1.2%。
2，杭州放开二手房限购。浙江本地房企滨江集团大涨，但冲高回落。
当天，三十年国债期货下跌，但低开高走。
从更长时间来说，房地产企业每一次暴雷，其公开债券每一次跳水，三十年国指期货就会的到资金的追捧，获得拉升。
两者资产背后的基本逻辑，以及在公开市场的表现，完美契合。
投资者，需要密切关注自己投资标的背后基本原理。
比如，三十年国债期货，如果发生猛烈的回调，那么你投资的债券产品可能会发生比较大的亏损。
比如，房地产市场进一步走弱，即便万科能够拿到这一笔800亿银团的支持，未来也可能非常非常猛烈的回调。
而无论是债券产品可能发生的亏损，或者是万科的暴雷，都会对现有的市场造成一定的冲击。
单押哪一种情况，都一定会面临相对应的巨大风险。尤其是这两个品种，都具有隐含的杠杆属性。
那么双押就可以吗？
并不。非常有可能是，万科先爆一轮。最终逼迫出史诗级的救市政策，从而再把三十年国债期货在爆破一轮。最终，两头亏钱。
这个概率并不低，且在我们的市场中上演过无数次。
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