美国在2024年3月20日，如市场所料维持不加息的政策。这个对黄金市场和资本市场会带来什么影响？很多人比较关心。

首先，美国不加息的事实已经出来，维持到7月份。现在市场普遍解读是美国一旦降息就意味着美国经济开始衰退，美国的资本市场开始走弱，这是个基本逻辑。既然是这样，美国不可能任由降息带来的资本滑落和经济滑落。所以较长时间维持不降息是美国的策略，但美国可能会适度的降息，在通胀达到合理范围时，对市场进行宽松。但是美国现在维持了不降息，它对黄金市场的影响特别大。美加息代表美元升值，美元坚挺，就意味着黄金的价格会下跌，资本市场还会有一些较强势的状态。

所以很多人就会据此来看得到今后黄金市场不断波动的情况。但是有两个问题必须注意。第一，美国利息处于高位，这是个事实。第二，美国的股市处于高位也是事实。美国长期来看降息是个趋势，但是美国可能会通过缓慢的降息来消化经济带来的冲击，恐怕要注意到这一点。所以就不可对短期黄金的波动有过多的恐惧。但是按照3~5年来看，黄金是要上涨的。因为美国不断提高国债，美元必然要贬值，就意味着黄金要升值。

这是一个基本的判断，我们看市场是怎么反应的。

李江涛

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