年初以来的大A一波三折。在2月初急跌,上证指数砸下三年来的最低点后,“触底反弹”一路向上收复了3000点,这一轮反弹幅度大,基本属于普涨行情;2月下旬至今进入第二阶段,指数在3000点附近震荡,板块轮动补涨。
资料来源:Wind,截至2024.03.18,指数历史数据不预示未来
随着反弹行情的演绎,投资者对调整的担忧情绪也在上升。当前的市场回暖到什么位置了?3000点究竟该不该入场?小夏和大家一起挖掘关键指标中蕴藏的信息~
01
市场反弹到什么位置了?
看反弹水平
截至3月18日,多数大盘宽基的年内涨幅已回正;而自去年12月跌破3000点至今,沪深300指数、上证50指数、A50已经相继“出坑”收复了失地,创业板指也基本持平,但修复中的中、小盘以及部分成长风格类的宽基指数距离原点还有较大向上的空间。
数据来源:Wind,数据区间2023.12.12-2024.03.18,指数历史数据不预示未来
据万和证券分析,A股在复苏期大多呈现上涨趋势,且万得全A的平均涨幅为30.96%。
目前市场距离去年5月的高点仍有明显的距离,且各指数涨幅均低于历史均值,反弹行情仍然可期。
看反弹结构
春节后人工智能领域扔出开年王炸,AI产业相关板块扛起了本轮领涨的大旗,TMT赛道率先爆发。反弹的第一阶段以TMT和监管资金偏好的高股息板块为主,具有直接利好刺激的行业在反弹中领跑。
数据来源:Wind,取申万一级行业,数据区间:2024.02.01-2024.02.29,历史数据不预示未来
进入三月,行情从超跌反弹的板块开始扩散,新能源等前期修复较弱的板块开始表现占优。
数据来源:Wind,取申万一级行业,数据区间:2024.03.01-2024.03.18,历史数据不预示未来
当前市场呈现板块轮动的特征,主题投资保持活跃,市场在震荡中等待中期主线,两市的反弹会逐渐演绎到更多需要补涨的方向。
看权益资产性价比
从衡量股债性价比的风险溢价来看,目前沪深300、上证50的风险溢价均处在近十年80%左右分位数的高处,万得全A更是处于近十年近90%分位数的高位。大白话说,就是此时此刻权益资产已经到了较好的买入时点。
数据来源:Wind,数据截至2024.03.18,历史数据不预示未来
特别要注意的是,当前万得全A的风险溢价已位于近10年的均值1倍标准差之上,与14年11月、19年2月、20年4月、22年11月的水平相当,而这些时点对应的是阶段性底部向上跃升蓄势的区间。
数据来源:Wind,数据截至2024.03.18,历史数据不预示未来
看指数估值
当前的A股是否跌出了性价比呢?我们以主流宽基指数的情况来分析看看。
数据来源:Wind,数据截至2024.03.18,历史数据不预示未来
经历2月以来这轮反弹行情后,A股的估值有所修复,但不论从中期还是长期视野来看,当前A股主要宽基指数的市盈率(PE-TTM)分位数大多仍处于30%或以下的“低估”区域,也就是说仍然处于性价比较高、值得布局的水平。
看北向动作
相较去年北向资金一度净卖出近6个月的状态,今年北向的态度可谓是180度大转弯。
年初迄今北向净流入额已达734.43亿元;仅2月单月就大额净流入607.44亿元,
月度净流入创12个月新高,更是一举超过了去年全年437亿的净买入额。
“聪明的钱”用脚投票,为大A注入动力,市场成交额连破万亿。此外北向对成长白马“偏好”,大幅的净流入对成长风格也是利好。
看成交量
春节后增量资金积极入市,政策面和资金面的积极变化仍在支撑行情展开,复苏交易逐渐活跃,投资者风险偏好持续修复,结构性机会不断显现。
近期沪深两市成交量维持高位,频破万亿传递积极信号。3月18日,三大指数更是齐创今年以来新高,其中创业板指放量大涨逾2%,领涨主要指数。
在增量资金持续入市的背景下,短期内市场仍有修复空间。
02
全年乐观
经历了持续3年的调整,目前A股在历史极低估值区间,内在回归力量是向上的。
展望未来,长期经济增长假设下的估值模型对2024年的估值回归预测依然是扩张。在全A盈利见底,剩余流动性下行,风险偏好企稳这一组合下,市场的大势将随着盈利的企稳回升而显著回暖。
就风格结构而言,随着反弹行情的扩散,成长逐渐接棒价值。
去年3月以来市场风格始终是价值由于成长,但最近一个月,成长风格成为了涨幅最大的风格板块,单月涨幅超过了20%,此前处于极值的成长与价值的收益差有所收敛。
特别值得一提的是,从短期视角看,本轮行情率先启动方向之一的红利板块虽然短期进入震荡调整阶段,但背后的原因是活跃资金的高低切换,从红利赚到其他尚未充分反弹的板块做补涨。其中长期逻辑并未改变,红利板块偏“稳”的风格可作为“新底仓资产”。
03
如何布局?
春节过后,市场在包括AI、机器人、汽车、家电、新能源、医药等在内的行业尝试进攻,但均缺少持续性,中期主线确认前市场将缺少共识,呈现轮动特征。
我们对后市结构的判断为先周期、后成长,此外基于盈利稳定性考虑的红利超额收益方向有望扩散
与制造业投资相关的周期方向仍应重视
而成长方向则更加关注产能扩张周期尾声的新能源车方向以及生产性服务业领域
3000点左右的A股具有较好的中长期投资价值,需要注意的是在主线不明的时刻,投资布局要避免过度押注单一风格或者单一行业。
历史上,在震荡市或者小牛市的行情中,板块之间的结构分化是比较明显的,投资者如果缺乏根据地集中持有单一风格或者单一行业的基金,很容易错失权益市场的结构性行情,因此更加明智的做法是均衡、分散化的配置。
此外,面对短期不确定性带来的市场波动和走势反复,以定投的方式保持在场,在具备价值的区域为长期布局可能更加适宜。分步建仓,通过多次少量的方式投资来平滑成本,为最终捕捉权益市场的长期上涨收集筹码。
在3000点附近开启定投,追求“模糊的正确”。一方面,对权益市场的长期走势保持乐观,同时也相信市场周期往复的基本规律,涨多必跌、跌多必涨;另一方面,实际操作保持谨慎,着眼于长期布局,避免盲投,无疑是成熟投资者的智慧。
风险提示
本资料观点仅供参考,不作为任何法律文件,资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,我公司不就资料中的对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下,本公司不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何所引致的任何损失负任何责任。以上不构成个股推荐。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证。管理人不保证盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。市场有风险,入市须谨慎。
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#2e8800;--weui-BRAND: #018942;--weui-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-INDIGO: #0075e2;--weui-PURPLE: #6265f1;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: 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