去年我做了几期黄金,讲了看多黄金的几大理由。
黄金在3月8日创下每盎司 2195 美元的历史新高,国内黄金现货也到了每克511元的历史高位。很多客户奇怪为什么在美元美股比特币都走强的情况下,黄金也在走强?
其实比这还奇怪的是,黄金价格上涨是在资金流出黄金ETF的情况下实现的。而比特币创新高伴随了资金的流入。
如果只是从美国投资者的角度,这些都显得奇怪。但别忘了,这个世界不只有美国,欧洲、日本,和中国经济都面临很大的下行压力。
这些国家少数明星龙头股可以拉动大盘,但大部分上市公司的股价表现并不理想。
黄金可以满足投资者强劲的避险需求,特别是来自于中国的需求,在股票、房地产和人民币表现都让人失望的情况下,黄金成了中国家庭追捧的资产。根据瑞士黄金出口的数据,1月份的黄金装运量几乎比上个月翻了一番,达到207公吨,其中约一半出口到内地和香港。
许多客户问,之前按我们的建议买入黄金,创新高后略有回调,要不要继续持有?
当然是继续持有?
美联储下半年开启降息美元走软,美股和比特币高位回调。
全球地缘冲突都在持续,美国大选正式开始,特朗普民调领先,他和拜登的主张都可能加剧中美紧张关系。
中国、波兰、新加坡等央行继续大手笔买买买。
我们预计美国黄金ETF资金流出的情况会逐步逆转,黄金即使短期技术性回调,未来还会创新高。
最后考大家一个冷知识,2000年至今,黄金,标普500指数哪个涨幅更高?
答案是黄金,而且涨幅接近标普的3倍。
2000年至今,主要资产表现好于黄金的只有比特币和印度股市。
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59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}