刚刚过去的周末，苹果发表了一篇论文，公布了自己研发的MM1多态大语言模型(Multimodal LLM)。这注定是人工智能发展史上的又一个标志性事件！很遗憾，我不是技术研发人员，对这篇论文只能粗略看懂一些基本信息。我的一些从事大模型研发的朋友，昨天已经彻夜不眠地进行深度研究了。
苹果这次公布的MM1大模型分为三个参数规模，其中最大的拥有300亿参数，与市面上的主流竞品相比，好像不是很大——要知道，谷歌PaLM大模型拥有5400亿参数，OpenAI的GPT-4更是拥有1.7万亿参数（注：OpenAI官方并未披露参数数量，仅有外界猜测）。科技博客Daily Dev的评测显示，MM1在GLUE-Score等多项评测指标上要略优于GPT-4V和Gemini Pro；不过众所周知，这种评测的参考价值有限。MM1目前还没有公测，官方也没有公布上线时间表，要评估其具体的技术水平可能还需要很长一段时间。
苹果发表的MM1大模型论文的标题和列表
对于人工智能行业乃至全球科技行业而言，MM1大模型本身可能是一件小事，苹果由此表现出的姿态则是一件大事。具体而言：
苹果今后肯定会依赖自研大模型，而不是OpenAI等第三方的大模型或者开源大模型。大模型是一项基础设施，没有哪个科技巨头愿意受制于人，都会投入尽可能多的资源实现自主。今后大模型赛道的竞争会更激烈。
根据苹果一贯的作风，它肯定想实现“软件-算法-芯片”三位一体的统一，今后肯定会建立自己的AI开发社区，甚至在芯片领域挑战一下英伟达。AMD和英特尔都没有这个实力，但苹果确实有一定希望。
在长期，最值得关注的话题是：苹果会不会走边缘计算、本地化推理的路线？这将直接决定“AI手机”有没有市场。不过这个问题不是一两年内能解决的。
先说第一条。在ChatGPT刚刚发布时，业界的主流观点是：世界上不需要那么多大模型，可能只需要3-5个，包括1-2个最先进的闭源大模型，再加上几个开源大模型。现在的情况却是人人都想做自己的大模型。此前很长一段时间，大家都觉得苹果是一家消费电子厂商，没有必要押注于自研大模型，只需要租用市面上最先进的大模型就可以了。现实告诉我们，苹果不是这么想的。就像我的一位从事大模型研发的朋友所说：“AGI时代，自己有控制权的大模型才是最好的。OpenAI不可能将模型参数开放给苹果，苹果也不会乐意受制于微软生态。不管它做不做得好，它只能自己做！”
如果苹果是这么想的，其他科技巨头就更会这么想了。谷歌和亚马逊都投资了Anthropic（除了OpenAI之外最炙手可热的AI创业公司），Salesforce投资了Mistral；各家大厂收购的小型研发团队就更是数不胜数了。无论这个世界究竟需要多少大模型，每个科技巨头都会做自己的大模型，而且肯定不止做一个——内部孵化几个、外部投资或并购几个，才是常态。
前一段时间，市场上有消息称，苹果从鸿海订购了2万台AI服务器，其中40-50%是英伟达H100服务器。当时很多人（包括我在内）认为这些服务器主要是用来推理的，不过用H100推理显得过于奢侈了。现在看来，这些服务器应该既包括推理需求、也包括训练需求。苹果最不缺的就是钱，既然它决定了押注自研大模型，就一定会把战争打到底。全球AI算力紧缺的局势看样子会雪上加霜。
再说第二条。虽然外界经常低估苹果的研发实力，但是在历史上，苹果经常通过在消费产品积累的资源去进军中上游、直至切入核心技术层面，这一点在民用芯片领域体现的最明显：自从2021年以来，苹果自研的M系列芯片已经全面替代英特尔x86芯片，成为Mac电脑的标配，乃至被“下放”到了iPad当中。一位熟悉这个领域的朋友告诉我：“苹果绝不会甘愿受制于CUDA。它热衷于独立掌握核心算法，对自研芯片进行适配优化，从而实现芯片-算法-软件的整合。不过它一定会小心谨慎地行事。”
众所周知，英伟达依托CUDA生态，建立了牢不可破的竞争壁垒。但是，英伟达的驱动程序并不开源（注：有极少数开源过，但于事无补），CUDA也并不好用。AMD、英特尔等竞争对手已经被甩出太远了，依靠它们去挑战英伟达并不显示。苹果则拥有这样的实力，看样子也拥有这样的意愿。不过，就算它决定进军英伟达的地盘，这个过程也会持续相当漫长的时间——要知道，从2006年Mac换用英特尔芯片到2020年转向自研芯片，经过了整整14年！
附带说一句，哪怕英伟达的竞争对手（无论是不是苹果）成功地夺走了一些市场份额，也不会解决当前AI算力紧缺的问题，因为瓶颈主要在制造环节。尤其是训练相关的芯片制造，在未来很长一段时间内估计还是台积电的天下。无论谁是AI芯片的王者，它都要依赖台积电代工。这是一个工程问题，只能循序渐进地解决。
最后，今后的AI推理主要在云端（数据中心）还是终端（手机、电脑）实现，这是一个争议很大的话题。我们看到各家手机厂商在争先恐后地推出“AI手机”——很可惜，这些产品现在还没什么用，消费者没有任何迫切的需求。当年的云游戏概念，是希望把游戏算力从终端搬到云端；现在的AI手机概念，则是希望把推理算力从云端搬到终端。前者已经被证明不切实际（至少现在是如此），后者则前途未卜。
作为全球最大、最赚钱的智能终端厂商，苹果肯定会希望终端多承担一些AI推理职责，这也有助于iOS生态的进一步扩张。然而，技术进步不会以任何科技巨头的主观愿望为转移。很多人猜测，苹果大模型的研发方向将指向边缘计算、本地化和小型化，其战略目标是开发出适合在移动端本地推理的模型。但是从目前的公开信息（主要就是那篇论文）中，我们尚不能获得足够的信息。
对于苹果的投资者而言，最大的好消息是：苹果注意到了自研大模型的重要性，不甘于在这个战略性赛道上掉队，而且正在试图利用自身资源禀赋去影响大模型技术的发展方向。资本市场可能会对此做出良好的反应（尤其是考虑到今年以来苹果衰落的股价），但是能否实现又是另一回事了。
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255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: 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