(一)玉米现货情况
刚刚过去的一周,玉米现货价格继续震荡运行,窄幅波动,略微变化,不过购销活跃度增强。进入三月份后,卖压有所呈现,基层售卖积极性提升,叠加春耕逐步展开,变现需求增加;但是直属库持续收购,入市收购贸易商增多,玉米销售进度大幅加快,余粮逐步减少,玉米价格稳中偏弱。随着东北第三批收储的即将实施,供应趋紧张;但是华北地区余粮较多,下游需求不强,面临较强压力,使得整体看,玉米价格存在一定博弈,存在一定的不确定性!
我们知道随着天气回暖、北方地区也即将投身新一年的播种,市场上量增加,售粮进度加快;不过直属库持续收购,开始暂停潮粮收购,贸易商收购积极性较高,使得东北产区余粮进一步减少,价格基本稳定,变化较小。比如松原嘉吉潮粮下调十元,新天龙上涨二十元。近日市场再度盛传第三批收储消息,虽然存在数量问题,但是基本已成定局;而且渠道库存还是偏低,都对地趴粮销售完毕,供应偏紧的东北产区市场,产生重大影响,关注未来产区价格变化!
当周山东地区玉米价格基本稳定,个别企业小幅调整价格,整体看涨跌互现,略微回落;不过到车辆变化比较大。11日深加工门前到车辆547台,随后几天时间增加到周四1144台,然后再度减少,周末为八百余台。天气快速转暖,粮源储存不易,本地粮源流通快速增加,尤其是栈子粮将迎集中上市阶段;不过需求方面,反而没有大的变化,下游饲料和深加工企业采购意愿不高,普遍以刚需补库和随用随买为主。因此面临一定的上市压力,但卖压已经大幅降低。关注未来各深加工门前到车和上量情况!
随着时间进入三月下旬,春天的到来,玉米储存难度将大幅增加,加上春耕的开始,以及即将开始的麦收腾仓。虽然华北地区面临较强的上市压力,但是由于东北第三批收储将开始,渠道库存偏低,玉米市场余粮逐步减少,卖压程度将低于预期;而且下游饲料和深加工库存也低,如果未来采购需求发生变化,将对玉米市场产生较大影响。未来价格如何运行?关注未来玉米上量情况!但是小编还是认为短期卖压有所呈现,但程度已经大幅减弱,不改上半年向好的局面!并且玉米市场将在近期产生重大变化,不排除"抢粮大战"的发生,您认同?
(二)期货行情回顾:
上周美玉米连续合约开盘价438.5美分/蒲式耳,盘中最高445美分/蒲式耳,最低431.75美分/蒲式耳,收盘于438美分/蒲式耳,跌幅0.4%。
上周玉米2405合约开盘价2444元/吨,盘中最高2457元/吨,最低2422元/吨,收盘于2451元/吨,上涨6元;涨幅0.25%。周五夜盘继续攀升,最高升至2462,停收于2458元/吨。
(三)中国玉米进口来源国相关情况
我们知道玉米进口数量也是影响国内价格的重要因素之一,近几年来为满足国内需要,中国进口数量大幅增加,连续四年超过720万吨进口配额。而且从23年开始,进口来源地更加多元化,不过主要来自巴西、美国和乌克兰等国。虽然去年国内玉米丰产,但玉米进口数量仍呈现爆发式增长,全年一共进口玉米2713万吨,仅次于2021年创下的2835万吨的历史记录。
国际谷物理事会(IGC)周四发布报告,预测2024/25年度全球谷物产量将创出历史新高,加剧了人们对全球供应过剩的担忧。
IGC初步预计2024/25年度全球玉米产量达到12.33亿吨,比上年的12.27亿吨提高0.5%,其中巴西和中国产量增长,部分被美国产量下降所抵消。
IGC预测2024/25年度巴西玉米产量为1.215亿吨,上年1.154亿吨;中国产量预计为2.91亿吨,上年2.888亿吨。美国产量预计为3.82亿吨,上年3.897亿吨。
先看下曾经最大的进口来源国之一的乌克兰相关情况
乌克兰谷物协会(UGA)周二称,由于玉米种植面积可能减少,新季玉米收成预期正在下降。该协会预计2024年乌克兰的玉米收成为2630万吨,比去年的2960万吨减少300万吨。与此同时,2024/25年度的潜在玉米出口量可能达到约2050万吨,低于当前年度的预期出口量为2600万吨。
再看下进口玉米来源国之一的巴西情况
巴西国家商品供应公司(CONAB)发布第六次产量预测报告,将2023/24年度巴西玉米总产量调低到1.12753亿吨,较2月份调低了94万吨或者0.8%。如果这一预期成为现实,将比上年的创纪录产量1.31893亿吨减少1910万吨或者14.5%。
巴西全国谷物出口商协会(ANEC)周三表示,2024年3月份巴西玉米出口量预计为146,571吨,略低于一周前估计的146,783吨,远低于2月份的713,658吨,也低于去年3月份的780,053吨,创下2022年3月份以来的最低值,当时出口量为107,232吨。
AgRural公布的数据显示,截至上周晚些时候,巴西2023/24年度第二季玉米种植率已经达93%,高于上年同期的82%。这意味着本周基本上将是巴西本市场年度第二季玉米种植的最后一周。
在巴西中南部,包括巴拉那州、南马托格罗索州、圣保罗州、戈亚斯州南部和马托格罗索州东南部,干旱开始成为一个令人担忧的问题。不过周末降雨使得部分地区受益,旱情缓解。
马托格罗索州作为巴西的玉米主产区,其第二季玉米作物播种已经全部完成,预计该州2023/2024季度玉米作物播种面积减少10%,至663万公顷。
(四)
美国玉米相关情况
虽然日本买家需求有所放缓,但是处于较高位置,加上中国采购需求增加,使得当周美国出口净销售数据小幅增长,当然仍符合市场预期。
美国农业部出口销售报告显示,截至3月7日当周,美国2023/24年度玉米出口销售净增128.34万吨,较之前一周增加16%,前期数值为110.96万吨;与之前四周均值增加19%。
当周,美国当前市场年度玉米新销售141.47万吨,2月29日当周为121.52万吨。
其中当周向中国出口销售13.3万吨,前一周向中国销售0.2万吨。去年同期仅为7.32万吨。
美国出口装船数据止跌回升,小幅提升。当周,美国玉米出口装船为125.86万吨,较前一周增加9%,上期数值为115.95万吨;但较前四周均值增加17%。其中,当周向中国大陆出口装运6.8万吨,上期未向大陆出口装运。
(五)
行情回顾与未来分析
回顾一下,刚刚过去的2月份,无论是期货还是现货,都呈现上涨姿态。春节以后,各种利多消息云集,特别是东北增储政策性提振,有效提高市场看涨情绪,玉米迎来久违的上涨局面。进入三月份后,延续之前的上涨局面,不过涨速放缓。随着天气变暖,玉米上量增加,价格开始呈现区域化特点。近期东北产区地趴粮销售进入收尾阶段,基层挺价情绪较强,但价格震荡运行,一改上月疯狂上涨现象。港口和山东地区,随着到车变化,窄幅波动。不过近日东北三批收储传闻再起,而且近期价格倒挂明显,华北面临上量压力,使得未来价格更加破朔迷离,存在博弈性!
期货方面,刚刚过去的一周,玉米2405合约探底回升。周一小幅回落,盘中最低2423;周二反弹上涨;周三略微回落;周四再度回落,盘中最低2423,与周一低位持平;周五低开高走,最高升至2457,并以2451元的价格收盘。周五夜盘继续攀升,最高升至2462。基本符合预期,未来还能继续上涨?
作为近期判断正确的小编,小褚再次谈谈个人看法,供大家参考!不足之处,希望大家批评指正。
玉米供应方面,节后的增储使得供需关系发生了变化。三月份以后虽然处于售粮小高峰期,但是多家直属库持续收购,贸易商和烘干塔也建立库存,使得市场情绪较为积极,价格持续偏强。而且东北低趴粮的销售即将完毕,供应偏紧;市场余粮大幅减少,主产区已经不足三成。虽然偏慢于去年同期水平,但是随着东北第三批收储的开始,无疑对后期的供应产生重大影响。
需求方面,正在逐步缓慢恢复。虽然贸易商和烘干塔企业积极入市收购,但是市场余粮逐步减少;渠道库存较往年偏低。饲料方面,属于消费淡季,加上生猪存栏逐步降低,替代谷物充足,对玉米采购积极性比较弱。而且饲料库存略微降低,低于去年同期水平,尤其是北方大幅低于去年。深加工企业采取低库存战略,随用随买为主;不过随着余粮的减少,开机率的提高,近期采购有所增加。特别关注未来需求变化情况!
近期国际玉米价格有止跌回升的趋势,近日中国才是逐步采购美玉米,但是玉米稀少,美对华出口数量严重低于去年,按照数据统计上半年美玉米到港数量减少近四百万吨;而且近期巴西玉米出口减少,对华出口也较去年锐减。春节后采购乌克兰玉米,但是数量不多,虽然多于去年,但是也低于前几年同期。综合看,第一季度进口玉米到港严重低于去年同期水平。关注未来玉米进口和到港情况!
玉米期货方面,近期盘面处于震荡当中,围绕2420--2470一线波动。不过经过周五的快速反弹,小褚认为短期调整已经结束,重新踏上反弹之旅的概率比较大;而且周线看,五周线上穿二十均线,月线处于反弹趋势中。农产品期货价格连续反弹上涨,豆粕价格大幅飙升。同时从持仓报告看,周五多头主力持仓在节后首次超过空头主力持仓,说明市场情绪比较高。
对于玉米后市,还是比较看好上半年的行情。小褚认为未来一两周时间,盘面上攻2500的概率大增。而且2024年上半年还是有冲击2600的可能性,让我们拭目以待!您是如何判断?当然未来玉米行情如何,需要大家仔细思考!
(六)本周观点
综上所述,小编认为,后市反弹上涨概率比较大。因此建议大家多单继续持有,继续逢低买入比较好。从中长期看,上半年依旧是反弹上涨概率大。个人观点,仅供参考!
重要提示:本文的信息均来源于公开可获得的资料,所载资料的准确性、可靠性、时效性及完整性力求准确可靠但并不作任何明示或暗示的保证。本文发布的观点和信息仅供投资者参考,不构成对任何人的投资建议。期货的风险和收益比较大,谨慎参与,对于由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意,感谢您的理解与配合!
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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}
